Imagine that instead of negotiating a 10-point plan that gives the Iranian regime what they want, we were negotiating a 10-point plan for affordable housing, childcare, and healthcare.
Best case scenario is the shooting and bombing stop. But the Strait is now perceived to be much riskier. Insurance rates will go up, perhaps a lot. Ships will be slow to resume transiting the Strait because there is much higher danger than before the fighting. Bottom line: oil prices and all the products from that resource are now more expensive and will stay higher. Time to ramp up the alternative renewables.
Well, maybe if insurance rates and insurance profits on oil tankers through the Strait go up, perhaps we can use that compenstation to the insurance companies as a way to get them the heck out of our healthcare system? (😊)
Don't forget the JCPOA was already agreed by Iran and hinted at a path to a more open economy. Now it would be a miracle to get Iran to agree to that. Thousands dead, billions spent, for a step back.
' Hovering over all of them is “why was that for? What did thousands of people have to lose their lives for?”'
As an article by Maggie Haberman in NYT details, that was mostly about Netanyahu satisfying his long-felt ambition of humbling/destroying Iran by roping in a pliant and senile US president to help accomplish what he could not do by himself.
Whitkoff and Kushner, again? Says it all, no? Kegsbreath, these selfish dunces, the delusional pile in the WH including felonious narcissistic Bibi-best-friend for life. Iran’s at the table are likely just as egotistical and power-drunk but more savvy about Middle East ways.
I think you're right about the Democrats needing to work their asses off (if you think that's too rude consider the "asses" to be close relatives of donkeys). The problem is you have a sclerotic democratic party unwilling to make some basic changes/commitments which is why people like Zohran Mamdani are kicking their rear ends. This is a major inflection point for the USA. Do you want idiots running the place, or you want to get along with some of the people who you might hold your nose about, but who sadly have a point? It's the same in my country (the UK). The Greens are kicking Labours rear ends, for much the same collection of reasons Zohran Mamdani won in New York. And frankly Labour have a much better story than the Democrats, specifically that we are now over 50% use of renewables and heading upwards, mostly due to the sterling work of Ed Milliband. Anyone who's seriously thinks oil is the future, except for a small coterie of very rich people, should take a close look at this moment. This is probably the end of oil. And in due course the end of Iran, in terms of how they're currently situated. When the money dries up, and it will dry up, I think it'll be harder to enforce a theocracy.
Just because you don’t see coverage in the mainstream media it doesn’t mean that Democrats are not working their buts off. In fact Democrats are regularly winning special elections all over the country and many of those are centrists. My state of North Carolina is very likely to elect Roy Cooper, a Democrat, to replace Thom Tillis — a fact the mainstream media largely ignores. The NC Democratic Party under the very energetic, impressive, and young Anderson Cooper is extremely active. Twenty years ago my city regularly elected Republican mayors and city council members but as Republicans have become more and more radical and engaged in culture wars that has stopped. Now we only have one Republican on the council and haven’t had a Republican mayor since the Bush administration.
If the midterm election was held next week the Rs would be thrashed, can the R party recoup MAGA, evangelical and conservative supporters at the polls? The belligerent T is to scary for his followers .. and no one his camp seems able to control him. I suspect his campaign will be to control polling places etc. As November approaches some Rs will begin to abandon the ship.
A long ride from April to November ….expect the worst ..
So I see a “Very Large Crude Carrier” moves approximately 2 million barrels of crude, making a $2million/ship toll about a $1/bbl. So 1% tax on crude where it's imported. (Since there are smaller tankers, I will presume Iran would pro-rate whatever charge to a per-barrel basis.)
About 20 million barrels/day thru the Strait means a toll of $20/million at the above volume, a nice new revenue source for Iran of $7 billion/yr—somewhere near 2% of GDP.
Interpretation:
Desperately-needed reparations, as it were, paid by all net importers of oil (US allies and otherwise), for the war-mongering of Israel and the USA. A modest price increase to reward Putin for his assistance to Iran and help finance HIS imperial urges
Oh yes, the fact that Trump has sold the soul of America for less than nothing. Such a deal!
Every non nuclear country now races for the bomb while North Korea just raises the price on the bomb and delivery missile. Meanwhile all countries start shifting business towards more dependable countries and more dependable currencies. The best and brightest no longer come to american schools and become american citizens.
You don't need to be an economist to see the disaster maga policies bring.
Meanwhile, jews around the world will be terrorized by jihad extremists the next several decades as retribution for their war crimes and genocide in gaza and the middle east. America will probably get another 9-11. It didn't have to be this way!
I am sure this thought has occurred to others: for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, they ought to be able to make the tankers and other ships crewless, like all the drones that we are hearing about. (If not now soon. Leaving the financial loss, and ecological mess, of tankers destroyed in the Strait still there, but at least the poor mariners' lives are not at stake.)
(While I'm at it, though off-topic, where the heck are the eldercare robots? They would certainly seem to help out with costs of the growing elderly unable-to-care-for-themselves population, which, who knows, I may even become one of them myself in the not-too-distant future.)
When will there be a comprehensive assessment of infrastructure damage around the Gulf and it's impact on supply of product and ability to load ships? Is this damage really being factored in by the futures market pricing?
The ceasefire means nothing. By the time your head hits the pillow tonight, it will have been blown apart by the IDF. It's so sad to see the markets' euphoria. Haven't we learned? Let me introduce you (again) to Lucy and the football. As for the "tollbooth"? Good for them. We never should have caused all of this damage and the tolls will fund reparations. Hopefully tRump gets off the Netanyahu Love Bus and we can focus on what we need to fix domestically.
Best case scenario is the shooting and bombing stop. But the Strait is now perceived to be much riskier. Insurance rates will go up, perhaps a lot. Ships will be slow to resume transiting the Strait because there is much higher danger than before the fighting. Bottom line: oil prices and all the products from that resource are now more expensive and will stay higher. Time to ramp up the alternative renewables.
Oh, yeah. Trump's still in charge. Dang.
Well, maybe if insurance rates and insurance profits on oil tankers through the Strait go up, perhaps we can use that compenstation to the insurance companies as a way to get them the heck out of our healthcare system? (😊)
Allowing the Strait of Hormuz to be an Iranian tollbooth is just setting the stage for another conflict in the future.
Don't forget the JCPOA was already agreed by Iran and hinted at a path to a more open economy. Now it would be a miracle to get Iran to agree to that. Thousands dead, billions spent, for a step back.
' Hovering over all of them is “why was that for? What did thousands of people have to lose their lives for?”'
As an article by Maggie Haberman in NYT details, that was mostly about Netanyahu satisfying his long-felt ambition of humbling/destroying Iran by roping in a pliant and senile US president to help accomplish what he could not do by himself.
Whitkoff and Kushner, again? Says it all, no? Kegsbreath, these selfish dunces, the delusional pile in the WH including felonious narcissistic Bibi-best-friend for life. Iran’s at the table are likely just as egotistical and power-drunk but more savvy about Middle East ways.
I think you're right about the Democrats needing to work their asses off (if you think that's too rude consider the "asses" to be close relatives of donkeys). The problem is you have a sclerotic democratic party unwilling to make some basic changes/commitments which is why people like Zohran Mamdani are kicking their rear ends. This is a major inflection point for the USA. Do you want idiots running the place, or you want to get along with some of the people who you might hold your nose about, but who sadly have a point? It's the same in my country (the UK). The Greens are kicking Labours rear ends, for much the same collection of reasons Zohran Mamdani won in New York. And frankly Labour have a much better story than the Democrats, specifically that we are now over 50% use of renewables and heading upwards, mostly due to the sterling work of Ed Milliband. Anyone who's seriously thinks oil is the future, except for a small coterie of very rich people, should take a close look at this moment. This is probably the end of oil. And in due course the end of Iran, in terms of how they're currently situated. When the money dries up, and it will dry up, I think it'll be harder to enforce a theocracy.
Just because you don’t see coverage in the mainstream media it doesn’t mean that Democrats are not working their buts off. In fact Democrats are regularly winning special elections all over the country and many of those are centrists. My state of North Carolina is very likely to elect Roy Cooper, a Democrat, to replace Thom Tillis — a fact the mainstream media largely ignores. The NC Democratic Party under the very energetic, impressive, and young Anderson Cooper is extremely active. Twenty years ago my city regularly elected Republican mayors and city council members but as Republicans have become more and more radical and engaged in culture wars that has stopped. Now we only have one Republican on the council and haven’t had a Republican mayor since the Bush administration.
If the midterm election was held next week the Rs would be thrashed, can the R party recoup MAGA, evangelical and conservative supporters at the polls? The belligerent T is to scary for his followers .. and no one his camp seems able to control him. I suspect his campaign will be to control polling places etc. As November approaches some Rs will begin to abandon the ship.
A long ride from April to November ….expect the worst ..
Math:
So I see a “Very Large Crude Carrier” moves approximately 2 million barrels of crude, making a $2million/ship toll about a $1/bbl. So 1% tax on crude where it's imported. (Since there are smaller tankers, I will presume Iran would pro-rate whatever charge to a per-barrel basis.)
About 20 million barrels/day thru the Strait means a toll of $20/million at the above volume, a nice new revenue source for Iran of $7 billion/yr—somewhere near 2% of GDP.
Interpretation:
Desperately-needed reparations, as it were, paid by all net importers of oil (US allies and otherwise), for the war-mongering of Israel and the USA. A modest price increase to reward Putin for his assistance to Iran and help finance HIS imperial urges
Oh yes, the fact that Trump has sold the soul of America for less than nothing. Such a deal!
Every non nuclear country now races for the bomb while North Korea just raises the price on the bomb and delivery missile. Meanwhile all countries start shifting business towards more dependable countries and more dependable currencies. The best and brightest no longer come to american schools and become american citizens.
You don't need to be an economist to see the disaster maga policies bring.
Meanwhile, jews around the world will be terrorized by jihad extremists the next several decades as retribution for their war crimes and genocide in gaza and the middle east. America will probably get another 9-11. It didn't have to be this way!
"Ibid"… again!
/glc
Loved your introductory fantasy! Thank you for giving us a powerful talking point! Hope the leaders of the DNC take note!
I am sure this thought has occurred to others: for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, they ought to be able to make the tankers and other ships crewless, like all the drones that we are hearing about. (If not now soon. Leaving the financial loss, and ecological mess, of tankers destroyed in the Strait still there, but at least the poor mariners' lives are not at stake.)
(While I'm at it, though off-topic, where the heck are the eldercare robots? They would certainly seem to help out with costs of the growing elderly unable-to-care-for-themselves population, which, who knows, I may even become one of them myself in the not-too-distant future.)
tl;dr: Trump does stupid shit. We pay for it.
Oh, and now the oranganus proposes a joint venture with Iran to collect SoH transit fees.
Always a pocket-lining grift in the works by the 𝗚reedy 𝗢ld 𝗣rick which will be ok'd by the rest of the GOP.
When will there be a comprehensive assessment of infrastructure damage around the Gulf and it's impact on supply of product and ability to load ships? Is this damage really being factored in by the futures market pricing?
The ceasefire means nothing. By the time your head hits the pillow tonight, it will have been blown apart by the IDF. It's so sad to see the markets' euphoria. Haven't we learned? Let me introduce you (again) to Lucy and the football. As for the "tollbooth"? Good for them. We never should have caused all of this damage and the tolls will fund reparations. Hopefully tRump gets off the Netanyahu Love Bus and we can focus on what we need to fix domestically.