Although the government is supposed to refund the wrongfully collected tariffs back to the importers, does the incredibly sloppy Trump Administration have the records and willingness to do so? I would not hold my breath expecting my windfall if I were an importer. More likely a write off as a bad debt.
EATING needs to be applied to putting stuff in our MOUTHES. Too few people are on Ozempic and Mounjaro now but soon the PILL form will be available and the numbers of people NO LONGER BINGING will increase. Walmart CEO has already pointed to 25% fewer food purchases for those who take the GLP-1 drugs. Hurrah!! Get rid of fatness is our goal. Tariffs on food from Mexico and Canada will help solve this problem by increasing PRICES so binging is too expensive and the PILL will decrease the need to eat nonstop 24/7. Huge economic shifts will happen and the Economists seem to be unaware since they are NOT interested in actual bodies. Not interested in the fact that the AVERAGE height -- 5/4" --American female has a waistline of 38.7 INCHES where the WHO says that 35 inches is OBESE. Yes 65% of us are obese right now.. Not 40% which uses the fraudulent BMI. YES we will EAT the higher food costs so sales will not drop too much but our consumption will. Same is happening right now in the booze biz. Look at the bodies. READ 80bites.com/anti-book
Sorry, but I don't think it's true that if [exporters “eat the tariffs.” That implies they adjust the price paid by importers down by the amount of the tariff, which in turn implies no increase in customs’ duties.] There would be no increase in customs duties if imports stopped, but who ends up paying for these is not easily visible in this curve, unless I'm missing something.
Take a simple example, importing an item initially sold by the exporter for $100, which used to be exempt and is now, say, subject to 30% import duties. If the exporter eats the tariff, that means they now sell it to the importer for ~$75, and US customs charges ~$25. If the importer eats the tariff, the exporter still sells for $100 and the importer forks over $30 to US customs. The most realistic scenario is that exporter and importer split the charge to some extent, since the exporter still wants to sell their stuff. So maybe they lower their price to $85 and the importer pays $110. In any of these scenarii, revenue flows from customs duties jump up. What this curve shows, is that imports didn't come to a full stop.
An interesting question is what custom duties increase did we expect given the tariff changes? If I read the chart right revenue went from ~$9B to $18B, certainly smaller than what we'd naively expect. But there's probably an easier way to figure out what the drop in imports is, and there will be some "relaxation time": initially exporters might be willing to swallow a large chunk to get rid of existing stock, but that will soon go away as they reduce production and find new avenues for their product. In Europe, TEMU started giving away tablets and most recently even adding a $100 gift card...
Just wondering, how would you know whether the exporters are eating the tariffs or not? They would be eating them by charging less for exports. Would you know whether they are charging less? Or not charging less? On a commodity like steel, you could compare the price charged by Chinese suppliers to the world market price. But what's the world price for T shirts?
Good question. We can't know in detail, and I wouldn't doubt some price adjustments. My point is that when you see that spike in customs revenues, it means importers are paying more for imports due to the tax and we can be sure they're passing some of that through to customers. The Trump admin often claimed this wouldn't happen because the incidence of the tax would fall on the exporters themselves.
Although the government is supposed to refund the wrongfully collected tariffs back to the importers, does the incredibly sloppy Trump Administration have the records and willingness to do so? I would not hold my breath expecting my windfall if I were an importer. More likely a write off as a bad debt.
EATING needs to be applied to putting stuff in our MOUTHES. Too few people are on Ozempic and Mounjaro now but soon the PILL form will be available and the numbers of people NO LONGER BINGING will increase. Walmart CEO has already pointed to 25% fewer food purchases for those who take the GLP-1 drugs. Hurrah!! Get rid of fatness is our goal. Tariffs on food from Mexico and Canada will help solve this problem by increasing PRICES so binging is too expensive and the PILL will decrease the need to eat nonstop 24/7. Huge economic shifts will happen and the Economists seem to be unaware since they are NOT interested in actual bodies. Not interested in the fact that the AVERAGE height -- 5/4" --American female has a waistline of 38.7 INCHES where the WHO says that 35 inches is OBESE. Yes 65% of us are obese right now.. Not 40% which uses the fraudulent BMI. YES we will EAT the higher food costs so sales will not drop too much but our consumption will. Same is happening right now in the booze biz. Look at the bodies. READ 80bites.com/anti-book
Sorry, but I don't think it's true that if [exporters “eat the tariffs.” That implies they adjust the price paid by importers down by the amount of the tariff, which in turn implies no increase in customs’ duties.] There would be no increase in customs duties if imports stopped, but who ends up paying for these is not easily visible in this curve, unless I'm missing something.
Take a simple example, importing an item initially sold by the exporter for $100, which used to be exempt and is now, say, subject to 30% import duties. If the exporter eats the tariff, that means they now sell it to the importer for ~$75, and US customs charges ~$25. If the importer eats the tariff, the exporter still sells for $100 and the importer forks over $30 to US customs. The most realistic scenario is that exporter and importer split the charge to some extent, since the exporter still wants to sell their stuff. So maybe they lower their price to $85 and the importer pays $110. In any of these scenarii, revenue flows from customs duties jump up. What this curve shows, is that imports didn't come to a full stop.
Agree. Need to fix as it's not "no increase" in custom's duties. It's less, as per your eg.
An interesting question is what custom duties increase did we expect given the tariff changes? If I read the chart right revenue went from ~$9B to $18B, certainly smaller than what we'd naively expect. But there's probably an easier way to figure out what the drop in imports is, and there will be some "relaxation time": initially exporters might be willing to swallow a large chunk to get rid of existing stock, but that will soon go away as they reduce production and find new avenues for their product. In Europe, TEMU started giving away tablets and most recently even adding a $100 gift card...
Just wondering, how would you know whether the exporters are eating the tariffs or not? They would be eating them by charging less for exports. Would you know whether they are charging less? Or not charging less? On a commodity like steel, you could compare the price charged by Chinese suppliers to the world market price. But what's the world price for T shirts?
Good question. We can't know in detail, and I wouldn't doubt some price adjustments. My point is that when you see that spike in customs revenues, it means importers are paying more for imports due to the tax and we can be sure they're passing some of that through to customers. The Trump admin often claimed this wouldn't happen because the incidence of the tax would fall on the exporters themselves.