Please don’t turn into Joe Manchin. Real wage growth at half the rate of productivity growth isn’t solid, and cheering for price stability when only 19,000 jobs are being added a month aren’t progressive analysis.
Joe Manchin!? That's cold, esp as Machin told me to my face that he'd vote for my confirmation and then opposed me. I still squeaked by 50-49 as some R senator was away at a Trump event!
Look, 130K jobs and 2.4% inflation (2.5% for the core, the lowest since Mar21) is good news. It's not "progressive" to say otherwise.
What's important is to give all the caveats, which I always try to do but probably miss some.
--One month doesn't make new trends.
--Affordability concerns remain in place, and the tariffs are part of the reason (I mentioned groceries; see beef, coffee prices).
--1.3% is good for this real wage series; from 2015-19, it averaged 1.1%; take your point re productivity growth, but that's more a compensation story, including benefits. This is just the hourly wage.
Given how Trump fired the statistics head, and last year's jobs numbers were just corrected severely for the worse, how much can we trust the shorter-term numbers?
Please don’t turn into Joe Manchin. Real wage growth at half the rate of productivity growth isn’t solid, and cheering for price stability when only 19,000 jobs are being added a month aren’t progressive analysis.
Joe Manchin!? That's cold, esp as Machin told me to my face that he'd vote for my confirmation and then opposed me. I still squeaked by 50-49 as some R senator was away at a Trump event!
Look, 130K jobs and 2.4% inflation (2.5% for the core, the lowest since Mar21) is good news. It's not "progressive" to say otherwise.
What's important is to give all the caveats, which I always try to do but probably miss some.
--One month doesn't make new trends.
--Affordability concerns remain in place, and the tariffs are part of the reason (I mentioned groceries; see beef, coffee prices).
--1.3% is good for this real wage series; from 2015-19, it averaged 1.1%; take your point re productivity growth, but that's more a compensation story, including benefits. This is just the hourly wage.
--You're right about the weak hiring in the job market, Jan notwithstanding, as I note in both this post and in greater depth in Wed post. https://econjared.substack.com/p/january-jobs-a-strong-upside-surprise?r=cyni
Given how Trump fired the statistics head, and last year's jobs numbers were just corrected severely for the worse, how much can we trust the shorter-term numbers?
CPI as a metric has to be studied:
https://substack.com/@amermurad/note/p-188485821?r=7dnlaq
a no insight substack. A data summary only. A college kid majoring in econ could do the same.
You motivated me to survey, anonymous and unscientific, I casually ask, “Are prices increasing? Is there an affordability crisis?”
Strangers almost scream, “Absolutely.”
I ask, “Whose blame ?”
A variety of answers: Trump, politicians, billionaires, the greedy …
and let’s acknowledge the ease in spending $$$, flashing your phone instead of counting out bills.
Will this attitude defeat T? Lead to the rise of fascist right wing? Are we at Germany in 1932?
Or, Just a blip …
Do you know what the “real” in real wage growth means?
Prices are up 2.4% YOY and wages are up 3.7%. What part of that makes you upset?
Real means after accounting for inflation. Wages rose 3.7% while inflation was 2.4% so the difference between them is “real wage growth” which is 1.3