My ecocnimics uneducated guess is that businesses are more than happy with the labor situation (DJTs' included) as they can continue to underpay and under-benefit their employees.
A generation of kids getting out of college facing a bleak job environment…. only a blip or years? More and more angry kids … angry parents as their kids move back home? An army of DSAers…?
Since 1973 the Real hourly earnings of nonsupervisory workers has grown by 3.5%; the Real GDP per person has grown by 144%. I've concluded that this is best referred to as a national disaster.
I'm sure you know this, and it's a crucial fact for understanding the dilemma of the U.S. economy.
The real weekly earnings of 80% of U.S. full-time workers is still about 3% lower than they were in 1973, 53 years ago. The Fed Fred does not show an inflation adjusted graph, but the BLS does, for "average weekly earnings": https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
Nonsupervisory workers are over 80% of all full-time workers.
I looked up the figures on the weekly earnings graph at BLS. Wages (weekly earnings) dropped by 23.2% from the highest point at Feb. 1973 until they hit bottom on October 1992 and began a slow rise, they are still 2.9% below the level of Feb. 1973.
Also, let's begin at July 2000 and compare to July 2026 the growth of wages with the total growth.
Hourly wages grew by 19.2% and real domestic product/capita grew by 41.3%.
I agree -- "the Casselman piece: “The real hourly wage is absolutely the fundamental building block of working Americans’ living standards."
The American Prospect published an article, "The $79 Trillion Heist". The amount of net worth that the lower 90% missed out on because wages stalled for over 50 years.
My point: If this is true, it should be emphasized whenever possible.
We know you have identified the interest rate risk regarding the federal debt. I’m curious about your thoughts on household and business debt. Household debt has increased from 37% of GDP to 59% today. Corporate debt has increased from 37% of GDP in 1960 to 70% today. Combined, they exceed the federal debt by $4 trillion. We’ve seen over and over again that higher leverage equals higher risk. On a combined basis, household, corporate and local/state/federal debt equals 253% of GDP versus 197% in 2000 and 135% in 1970. That’s a huge increase in risk. At what point does it collapse on itself?
Jared, (Mr. Bernstein🙂) I might not know all aspects of the many subjects you write and teach us about but I
feel I can keep pace most of the time. You by far are my favorite economist/columnist. Your sense of humor and innuendos
are priceless. Thank you for keeping us current and staying in the game without losing hope.
My ecocnimics uneducated guess is that businesses are more than happy with the labor situation (DJTs' included) as they can continue to underpay and under-benefit their employees.
A generation of kids getting out of college facing a bleak job environment…. only a blip or years? More and more angry kids … angry parents as their kids move back home? An army of DSAers…?
Trumps policy is only focused on his own wealth gain and vanity projects.
Small businesses are hurting, Big Bidness is doing OK, and that's life in trump's Murka...MAGA!
Since 1973 the Real hourly earnings of nonsupervisory workers has grown by 3.5%; the Real GDP per person has grown by 144%. I've concluded that this is best referred to as a national disaster.
I'm sure you know this, and it's a crucial fact for understanding the dilemma of the U.S. economy.
The real weekly earnings of 80% of U.S. full-time workers is still about 3% lower than they were in 1973, 53 years ago. The Fed Fred does not show an inflation adjusted graph, but the BLS does, for "average weekly earnings": https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
Nonsupervisory workers are over 80% of all full-time workers.
I looked up the figures on the weekly earnings graph at BLS. Wages (weekly earnings) dropped by 23.2% from the highest point at Feb. 1973 until they hit bottom on October 1992 and began a slow rise, they are still 2.9% below the level of Feb. 1973.
Also, let's begin at July 2000 and compare to July 2026 the growth of wages with the total growth.
Hourly wages grew by 19.2% and real domestic product/capita grew by 41.3%.
I agree -- "the Casselman piece: “The real hourly wage is absolutely the fundamental building block of working Americans’ living standards."
The American Prospect published an article, "The $79 Trillion Heist". The amount of net worth that the lower 90% missed out on because wages stalled for over 50 years.
My point: If this is true, it should be emphasized whenever possible.
We know you have identified the interest rate risk regarding the federal debt. I’m curious about your thoughts on household and business debt. Household debt has increased from 37% of GDP to 59% today. Corporate debt has increased from 37% of GDP in 1960 to 70% today. Combined, they exceed the federal debt by $4 trillion. We’ve seen over and over again that higher leverage equals higher risk. On a combined basis, household, corporate and local/state/federal debt equals 253% of GDP versus 197% in 2000 and 135% in 1970. That’s a huge increase in risk. At what point does it collapse on itself?
Yikes.