P.S. I thought about putting "at a jazz club" in deference to J.B.'s earlier vocation, but I left it at "chamber music". (Which is my own personal favorite. I like jazz, as well, but not as much as chamber.)
All of us live in a “Jarod Bubble,” we nod, a fist pump, we may not understand all the datapoints, they all seem to be moving to a majority in November. The unmeasurable is racism and misogyny that T legitimized, will eco doom predictions, the senseless war overcome the deep seated bias ingrained in too many of us🥴
I'm enjoying the discussion about this topic by you, Professor Krugman and GW Morris; and learning a lot
Quick question: in your empirical work with Daniel Posthumus, do you do anything to adjust Index of Consumer Sentiment values from April 2024 to allow for the change in survey method implemented starting with that month?
"As someone who’s been involved in White House processes—obviously, not to go to war, but I’ve been in the room for big ones—what surprised me was how normal this process was. "
Remember, this is the NYT. Also, I agree that the source (and he was to be flattered) was Vance.
"President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president"
"But my guess is [the leaks] mostly came from VP Vance’s team ... to make sure his opposition to the operation is known to the base."
I wonder how vociferously Vance actually expressed opposition to war in the Situation Room meetings, or if his leaks to Swan and Haberman to that effect are a revisionary CYA effort made after things started to go sour.
We are far short of the half-way mark for this president. One might even say, he’s only gotten started. We might have to adjust all those charts to show how low things will get.
Does 47.6 mean there’s been (or soon will be) a run on toilet paper at Costco, as there was during the pandemic? I’ve always been interested in non-traditional indicators that track or predict angst and behaviour.
But what really sent me back down memory lane was your (well, JDV’s) description of the decision making process: the post mortem on the Bay of Pigs fiasco made it a case study of “risky shift” and “group think”.
Just reporting, I hear the president was at a chamber-music performance when the news of the failure of the Iran talks broke.
( https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/us/politics/trump-ufc-iran-war.html ).
That's our prez! (😊)
P.S. I thought about putting "at a jazz club" in deference to J.B.'s earlier vocation, but I left it at "chamber music". (Which is my own personal favorite. I like jazz, as well, but not as much as chamber.)
"The president stayed seated in Miami, his eyes trained on the men punching and kicking each other in a bloodstained cage."
How much longer can this travesty of a presidency go on?
All of us live in a “Jarod Bubble,” we nod, a fist pump, we may not understand all the datapoints, they all seem to be moving to a majority in November. The unmeasurable is racism and misogyny that T legitimized, will eco doom predictions, the senseless war overcome the deep seated bias ingrained in too many of us🥴
I'm enjoying the discussion about this topic by you, Professor Krugman and GW Morris; and learning a lot
Quick question: in your empirical work with Daniel Posthumus, do you do anything to adjust Index of Consumer Sentiment values from April 2024 to allow for the change in survey method implemented starting with that month?
Tedeschi and Cummings wrote about this in a Briefing Book substack post in 2024. "The effect of online interviews on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment". (https://www.briefingbook.info/p/the-effect-of-online-interviews-on)
I commented in Professor Krugman's substack:
https://substack.com/@adilsayeed/note/c-244949919
"As someone who’s been involved in White House processes—obviously, not to go to war, but I’ve been in the room for big ones—what surprised me was how normal this process was. "
Remember, this is the NYT. Also, I agree that the source (and he was to be flattered) was Vance.
totally agree on the Vance team leak, not many people in the room (and maybe also some Rubio, who is depicted as the one who tells "this is BS")
"President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president"
"But my guess is [the leaks] mostly came from VP Vance’s team ... to make sure his opposition to the operation is known to the base."
I wonder how vociferously Vance actually expressed opposition to war in the Situation Room meetings, or if his leaks to Swan and Haberman to that effect are a revisionary CYA effort made after things started to go sour.
So the reason Trump sent Vance to Pakistan was to let him fail.
More likely to pee over what ever JD, S & J did do….
We are far short of the half-way mark for this president. One might even say, he’s only gotten started. We might have to adjust all those charts to show how low things will get.
Does 47.6 mean there’s been (or soon will be) a run on toilet paper at Costco, as there was during the pandemic? I’ve always been interested in non-traditional indicators that track or predict angst and behaviour.
But what really sent me back down memory lane was your (well, JDV’s) description of the decision making process: the post mortem on the Bay of Pigs fiasco made it a case study of “risky shift” and “group think”.
I “worried” for JD’s safety during this negotiation trip. I wasn’t convinced Trump’s motives in sending him were pure.