Thank you for you what you do for Americans, your contributions, and your article. I guess the old saying "Beware the smiling man bearing gifts!" Is appropriate here. As a humble American, proudly, Not, belonging to the Red gang, or the Blue gang. But the Red, White and Blue gang. Never, in my short life of 68 years did I think I would ever see our country in its current state. We haven't learned from Vietnam, Iraq, and now Iran. We have lost sight of what bi-partisan means. Self-serving politicians, puppets, (Not Patriots) to the pedophile protector president worried about saving themselves, rather than saving our country. A pedophile protector president, who has put the global credibility of our country, virtually in the toilet, condoned the murder of American citizens, condoned the separation of immigrant families, deportation of hard-working Legal aliens, and American citizens. I am confident, having seen this before, our country and democracy will survive. But this time...it will not be a band aid fix. This will require major recovery time. Both politically and economically. Hopefully these events have woken us up, this will be a lesson-learned exercise in political choice for Americans, and the pedophile protector president will be an aberration. He has let everyone down, except his gang of puppets. And history has a gifted way of redemption. V
Never has so much (thousands of civilian deaths, > $ 3 billion a day in just US war expenses, trillions of dollars in equity loss, large losses in global GDP) been owed by so many (the entire world) to so few (Trump and Netanyahu). (Paraphrasing Churchill, of course.)
My guess is "Trump" will become the curse of choice when one wishes to stingingly insult a clueless and/or greedy fool. I hope the hard-earned silver lining from all this will be Americans not only kicking this can-full of pedophile-loving crooks to the curb, but finally dealing with the billionaire-class that so distorts our politics. May he and his family live in infamy, cursed by history.
Whether explicit or not, Iran wants regime change in the US. You can’t just whack the Ayatollah and have his son be ready to kiss and make up. The Shaheds will keep flying as long as Trump is in office. Take your pick: 25th, impeachment, resignation or “natural causes”.
Every body is talking about oil and gas and it is ok, but it's not only a question of energy, because if oil and gas are energy, it's also the building block of innumeral imputs in our industrial world. A rupture in the flow of oil and gas is also a rupture in imputs required by industrial, manufactured composants that enter the supply chain of almost every thing. From oil and gas refiner, come Helium for chips, amoniac to make urea and then fertiliser, nafta that is a critical composent of polymer and therefore all plastics, sulphur that is required to make sulfuric acid witch is required in a lot of industrial process. The middle east is a major player as everybody knows by now. I would like to see an assesment of the impact of the strait of Ormuz blocade on those supply chain that stand in this blind spot and how bad these rupture of supply chains will affect the global production and economy. I think it has the potential to crash the economy much faster than economist think. It seems to me that every body is focusing on first order effect neglecting second, third, etc. effets. How do you integrate that into your analysis?
For composant or composent, please read component. Sorry for the confusion. My auto-corrector is playing me tricks every time I try to write in english.
Is there a tipping point? History would us yes, as the datapoints erode, as investors nervousness edges to panic, as the serious guys/gals start selling short there comes a day when humpty-dumpty falls off the wall, no lifelines, how deep is the trench? When the market dived in October, 1929 President Hoover shrugged it off, only a glitch, by the time FDR was elected it was too late, will history repeat itself?
They'd lower the interest rate they control, the federal funds rate, which is a benchmark off of which many other interest rates in the economy are set.
“If you’re asking yourself how the admin could have walked into this without realizing these risks, the answer is simple: unchecked hubris from an authoritarian leader operating on instinct that is wholly divorced from knowledge.”
It’s worse than that: It’s an insane, incompetent monster of no aptitude or skill as needed here who has assured that he would be surrounded by equally incompetent sycophants. Because no one says no to Donny.
In fact, it’s actually worse than that.
And Jared’s correct: Trump likely cannot TACO his way out of this, notwithstanding he was able to surrender to the Taliban.
Given how radical and desperate the current government is, couldn't they try an oil export moratorium and price controls? Anyway, great piece, thanks. Only quibble is that for those of us drawing down our IRAs, not looking is not an option.
Rednecks getting hosed as much if not more than the rest of Americans, but remain trumpy to the core...at what point do even the psychotic faithful see the light?
Oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly down by as much as 96%. The one factor I haven’t heard much discussed is that the vast, vast majority of Middle East oil goes elsewhere than the US, specifically to Asia (China, India, Japan, Korea, etc.). So although the US will not be insulated from the price shock of closing the strait, we will be somewhat insulated from the supply shock. We are unlikely to see major shortages, long gas, lines, etc. I would therefore expect to see pressure coming to bear on Iran from China in particular to allow oil through at much higher levels.
All in the context of the rapidly changing global climate. No longer a footnote in energy supply, despite the regime’s / Heritage Foundation’s actions to exacerbate with big coal, big oil, sabotaging wind and solar sources. Bibi & the felon ( and his R’s) have altered oil forever. The SoH will likely now always be an oil cost - a toll or tax to ensure safe passage. Silver lining notch for clean energy - “ eat it, Heritage” as was the saying.
Mr. Bernstein
Thank you for you what you do for Americans, your contributions, and your article. I guess the old saying "Beware the smiling man bearing gifts!" Is appropriate here. As a humble American, proudly, Not, belonging to the Red gang, or the Blue gang. But the Red, White and Blue gang. Never, in my short life of 68 years did I think I would ever see our country in its current state. We haven't learned from Vietnam, Iraq, and now Iran. We have lost sight of what bi-partisan means. Self-serving politicians, puppets, (Not Patriots) to the pedophile protector president worried about saving themselves, rather than saving our country. A pedophile protector president, who has put the global credibility of our country, virtually in the toilet, condoned the murder of American citizens, condoned the separation of immigrant families, deportation of hard-working Legal aliens, and American citizens. I am confident, having seen this before, our country and democracy will survive. But this time...it will not be a band aid fix. This will require major recovery time. Both politically and economically. Hopefully these events have woken us up, this will be a lesson-learned exercise in political choice for Americans, and the pedophile protector president will be an aberration. He has let everyone down, except his gang of puppets. And history has a gifted way of redemption. V
TACO Don, dumbest president to ever occupy the Oval Office. First 34 count felon to hold the office. What a putz.
Most corrupt president, too, by far.
Never has so much (thousands of civilian deaths, > $ 3 billion a day in just US war expenses, trillions of dollars in equity loss, large losses in global GDP) been owed by so many (the entire world) to so few (Trump and Netanyahu). (Paraphrasing Churchill, of course.)
My guess is "Trump" will become the curse of choice when one wishes to stingingly insult a clueless and/or greedy fool. I hope the hard-earned silver lining from all this will be Americans not only kicking this can-full of pedophile-loving crooks to the curb, but finally dealing with the billionaire-class that so distorts our politics. May he and his family live in infamy, cursed by history.
Whether explicit or not, Iran wants regime change in the US. You can’t just whack the Ayatollah and have his son be ready to kiss and make up. The Shaheds will keep flying as long as Trump is in office. Take your pick: 25th, impeachment, resignation or “natural causes”.
Every body is talking about oil and gas and it is ok, but it's not only a question of energy, because if oil and gas are energy, it's also the building block of innumeral imputs in our industrial world. A rupture in the flow of oil and gas is also a rupture in imputs required by industrial, manufactured composants that enter the supply chain of almost every thing. From oil and gas refiner, come Helium for chips, amoniac to make urea and then fertiliser, nafta that is a critical composent of polymer and therefore all plastics, sulphur that is required to make sulfuric acid witch is required in a lot of industrial process. The middle east is a major player as everybody knows by now. I would like to see an assesment of the impact of the strait of Ormuz blocade on those supply chain that stand in this blind spot and how bad these rupture of supply chains will affect the global production and economy. I think it has the potential to crash the economy much faster than economist think. It seems to me that every body is focusing on first order effect neglecting second, third, etc. effets. How do you integrate that into your analysis?
For composant or composent, please read component. Sorry for the confusion. My auto-corrector is playing me tricks every time I try to write in english.
Is there a tipping point? History would us yes, as the datapoints erode, as investors nervousness edges to panic, as the serious guys/gals start selling short there comes a day when humpty-dumpty falls off the wall, no lifelines, how deep is the trench? When the market dived in October, 1929 President Hoover shrugged it off, only a glitch, by the time FDR was elected it was too late, will history repeat itself?
"Third, the Fed may want to do something to push against the rising rates shown above." - how would they do that?
They'd lower the interest rate they control, the federal funds rate, which is a benchmark off of which many other interest rates in the economy are set.
Finding that “ soft landing “ rate under
the current chaotic conditions will be
a challenge - the calculus hasn’t been invented to account for STUPID
“If you’re asking yourself how the admin could have walked into this without realizing these risks, the answer is simple: unchecked hubris from an authoritarian leader operating on instinct that is wholly divorced from knowledge.”
It’s worse than that: It’s an insane, incompetent monster of no aptitude or skill as needed here who has assured that he would be surrounded by equally incompetent sycophants. Because no one says no to Donny.
In fact, it’s actually worse than that.
And Jared’s correct: Trump likely cannot TACO his way out of this, notwithstanding he was able to surrender to the Taliban.
Given how radical and desperate the current government is, couldn't they try an oil export moratorium and price controls? Anyway, great piece, thanks. Only quibble is that for those of us drawing down our IRAs, not looking is not an option.
Rednecks getting hosed as much if not more than the rest of Americans, but remain trumpy to the core...at what point do even the psychotic faithful see the light?
re: "like giving race-car keys to a drunk teenager." - should read "teenage boy" - testosterone is an important ingredient in all of this.
Oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly down by as much as 96%. The one factor I haven’t heard much discussed is that the vast, vast majority of Middle East oil goes elsewhere than the US, specifically to Asia (China, India, Japan, Korea, etc.). So although the US will not be insulated from the price shock of closing the strait, we will be somewhat insulated from the supply shock. We are unlikely to see major shortages, long gas, lines, etc. I would therefore expect to see pressure coming to bear on Iran from China in particular to allow oil through at much higher levels.
Except, the US drillers don't sell to anyone other than the highest bidder. Shocking nonetheless.
Trump will slap them with export controls if the prices get too high.
I wouldn't bet on that. How high is too high?
All in the context of the rapidly changing global climate. No longer a footnote in energy supply, despite the regime’s / Heritage Foundation’s actions to exacerbate with big coal, big oil, sabotaging wind and solar sources. Bibi & the felon ( and his R’s) have altered oil forever. The SoH will likely now always be an oil cost - a toll or tax to ensure safe passage. Silver lining notch for clean energy - “ eat it, Heritage” as was the saying.