Thanks so much for all that you do, so many of us appreciate your expertise and steady hand at the wheel. We all need reliable analysis right now as we figure out how to maneuver through this.
I think the question of when Trump will start tampering with BLS data has already been answered. He's started it already.
If you don't think that firing someone for the explicit reason that that someone gave him a number he didn't like is "tampering with the data," it can only mean that you live in a world where Sinclair Lewi's famous line is not true:
""It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it"
--Sinclair Lewis
I hope we can rely on the honesty of BLS employees, but that cannot last when they know that their jobs depend on saying what Trump wants to hear.
By killing the messenger Trump has destroyed the credibility of the agency. So if and when the numbers are good, no one with any sense will trust them. Short sighted stupidity, but not unexpected.
What is the effect on the bond market, sales of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds when investors no longer trust the data coming out BLS or BEA? My guess is a significant risk premium will be required to sell those assets. It’s like a subprime mortgage fiasco, except it’s the United States, not Countrywide Mortgage. And, remember the turmoil that caused in ‘08.
Longer term, Republicans think they have plan. Debase the dollar by running up debt and try and legitimize crypto currency by getting the federal government to participate in it. When the time is ripe, the dollar would be gradually and effectively replaced by crypto (which by then will have the taxing power of the federal government behind it) handing a bonanza to those who have hoards of crypto.
The thing is that he now is institutionalizing lying. One thing is that a person lies, a different one is to have an institution with the purpose of lying. The transformation to a banana republic is more than completed, now it is evolving to something even worse.
I read this posting and shudder when I add this madness from mr. trump and his cohorts in "government" to all that has gone on since his "Swearing To Uphold The Constitution" in January.
My oversimplified conclusion is now this: Mr. Trump is too damaged to be cured. The Congress and Senate have abrogated their promise to abide by the Constitution in all matters. The GOP party is extinct and apparently are so intimidated for their and their families safety are frozen in fear. The Justice System and Supreme Court seems to be , at the end of it all, to be owned by mr.trump.
I have followed the politics of America for 10 years and try to understand the differences between your Republic form of government and our Parliamentarian system with all its wrinkles and cannot imagine your dilemma with the trump travesty happening here. Could it happen under our system?, I pray not and wish our southern neighbours the best outcome.
The US economy has been compared to an aircraft carrier: It responds to the helm but with a substantial lag. The voters reached into the bottom of the barrel to select Trump (the dementia-addled chaos monkey - hat-tip Brad deLong), and Trump has reached into the bottom of the barrel to choose his cabinet and his policies. It was always going to take a while before the full extent of the calamity became obvious.
What do we need data for? The President declares the economy is booming (and we won the 2016 election!!), the BLS will be shut down … the stock market may dive, an Executive Order halting trading … only on US based stock markets, as Black Monday presages the beginning of of the recession of 2025 … hedge funds are gleeful
i read somewhere that there are over 7 million job openings in america. so how can there be a problem with hiring? seems like there's a problem with not enough qualified people looking for jobs
Maybe Alan. Maybe 6M of those jobs only pay minimum or less. 'Mericans don' wanna do those stinkin' slave jobs. Let the Latinos do 'em but let's deport them soon as they done. MAGA thinking, Alan.
The problem is that no economist addresses what these jobs actually are. You have no evidence that they are all minimum wage jobs. Maybe most of them require some intelligence, which is in short supply these days
what is your point? the experts are all pontificating that we are facing stagflation because the economy is slowing and employers are not hiring. but none of them are talking about all the 7 million jobs that are available. maybe if we still had immigration we would have more job growth,
JB...the 'key' people in the 'stats' world do not, by shank's mare, go out and actually count or measure beans or pork bellies. They receive reports from other office-bound bean counters and statistics sources. They are not story tellers, they are story repeaters. To get REAL numbers that prove out as accurate over time speaks to their honest REPORTING. That is going to change. THAT has changed. They won't get THE TRUTH out because Trump can't handle the truth. Solution: contactuI every 'key' in every segment of the economy that normally sends their info to the department and request a copy. If you and PK and a few other economic translators/code-talkers can't do it all, then just go to a select few numbers sources. Don't wait on the Dept of Labour. It is now corrupted. Go NOW to their sources.
Once the CPI and employment/unemployment figures incorporate more and more"imputation" data as opposed to hard, contemporaneous facts, that's when bad shit goes out, and this is where tRump is taking data critical to the economy at large, and businesses in particular. When it's a question of "making the data fit the policy" — yes, that was a Brit Intelligence summary of Bush's runup to invading Iraq — disaster is not far behind, and here we are, on the cusp of it.
Per Josh Marshall (and presuming I’m clear about what he said), BLS was somewhat reducing the data collected prior to the firing of its commissioner. IIRC, it may have been a DOGE action.
The problem is that some federal agencies discredited themselves following 2016 (whether anyone agrees or disagrees with that point is largely irrelevant, the damage is done with a large portion of the population). Inevitability, that makes it much easier to attack and defenestrate any and all federal agencies. None of what is happening is surprising. The lies previously generated have real consequences.
JB: "I know these agencies, all of which are staffed by public servants with high integrity and a strong culture of delivering the most accurate data possible. They would not play along with book-cooking."
Two observations. First, they may not "play along with book-cooking," but that will most likely mean they will join the ranks of the uncounted unemployed. Second, it remains to be seen whether or not there are enough people tasked with cooking the books who will be willing to accept joblessness over playing along when they will know with certainty that losing their own jobs will simply mean someone else collects their paychecks and the books still get cooked.
That is not a position I would want any good person put in, but I won't get a say in the matter.
One conceivable solution to this, though improbable and likely impossible, would be for one or more billionaires, who actually prefer democracy to fascism, to step up and create an independent organization to try to take the place of the BLS. That is hard for me to imagine. The set up time would likely be considerable and I have no idea if it would be possible for such a creation to be able to acquire enough accurate data to create meaningful reports. (The alternative would be to do what Trump might do -- create a phony group to simply publish phony statistics that show what a disaster Trump is and how much damage he's doing to the economy. That group wouldn't even have to exist if Trump were doing it. All that is needed is an announcement that it has been formed, in an undisclosed location in order to protect its employees. Then, the reports would all be issued through Truth Social. Why does something so preposterous sound so normal for Trump?)
Extra! Extra! Read all about it -- unemployment rises to 27%. Worse than the Great Depression! Inflation now at 12% and increasing!!! Thousands jump to their deaths as businesses and lives are destroyed!!! Meanwhile, Trump plays golf and cheats!!!
Yep. Ford was complaining that the tariffs on steel, combined with the lower tariffs on completed Japanese vehicles are hard on them. Ford makes trucks. Plus the Mustang, which has no Japanese competitor. Foreign trucks face a 25% tariff imposed by the Johnson administration (called the "chicken tax"). So, basically, Ford is complaining that Trump just leveled the playing field for them.
Thanks so much for all that you do, so many of us appreciate your expertise and steady hand at the wheel. We all need reliable analysis right now as we figure out how to maneuver through this.
I think the question of when Trump will start tampering with BLS data has already been answered. He's started it already.
If you don't think that firing someone for the explicit reason that that someone gave him a number he didn't like is "tampering with the data," it can only mean that you live in a world where Sinclair Lewi's famous line is not true:
""It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it"
--Sinclair Lewis
I hope we can rely on the honesty of BLS employees, but that cannot last when they know that their jobs depend on saying what Trump wants to hear.
By killing the messenger Trump has destroyed the credibility of the agency. So if and when the numbers are good, no one with any sense will trust them. Short sighted stupidity, but not unexpected.
What is the effect on the bond market, sales of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds when investors no longer trust the data coming out BLS or BEA? My guess is a significant risk premium will be required to sell those assets. It’s like a subprime mortgage fiasco, except it’s the United States, not Countrywide Mortgage. And, remember the turmoil that caused in ‘08.
Longer term, Republicans think they have plan. Debase the dollar by running up debt and try and legitimize crypto currency by getting the federal government to participate in it. When the time is ripe, the dollar would be gradually and effectively replaced by crypto (which by then will have the taxing power of the federal government behind it) handing a bonanza to those who have hoards of crypto.
The thing is that he now is institutionalizing lying. One thing is that a person lies, a different one is to have an institution with the purpose of lying. The transformation to a banana republic is more than completed, now it is evolving to something even worse.
Good Evening Mr. Bernstein,
I read this posting and shudder when I add this madness from mr. trump and his cohorts in "government" to all that has gone on since his "Swearing To Uphold The Constitution" in January.
My oversimplified conclusion is now this: Mr. Trump is too damaged to be cured. The Congress and Senate have abrogated their promise to abide by the Constitution in all matters. The GOP party is extinct and apparently are so intimidated for their and their families safety are frozen in fear. The Justice System and Supreme Court seems to be , at the end of it all, to be owned by mr.trump.
I have followed the politics of America for 10 years and try to understand the differences between your Republic form of government and our Parliamentarian system with all its wrinkles and cannot imagine your dilemma with the trump travesty happening here. Could it happen under our system?, I pray not and wish our southern neighbours the best outcome.
GR
The US economy has been compared to an aircraft carrier: It responds to the helm but with a substantial lag. The voters reached into the bottom of the barrel to select Trump (the dementia-addled chaos monkey - hat-tip Brad deLong), and Trump has reached into the bottom of the barrel to choose his cabinet and his policies. It was always going to take a while before the full extent of the calamity became obvious.
What do we need data for? The President declares the economy is booming (and we won the 2016 election!!), the BLS will be shut down … the stock market may dive, an Executive Order halting trading … only on US based stock markets, as Black Monday presages the beginning of of the recession of 2025 … hedge funds are gleeful
i read somewhere that there are over 7 million job openings in america. so how can there be a problem with hiring? seems like there's a problem with not enough qualified people looking for jobs
Maybe Alan. Maybe 6M of those jobs only pay minimum or less. 'Mericans don' wanna do those stinkin' slave jobs. Let the Latinos do 'em but let's deport them soon as they done. MAGA thinking, Alan.
The problem is that no economist addresses what these jobs actually are. You have no evidence that they are all minimum wage jobs. Maybe most of them require some intelligence, which is in short supply these days
Have you picked fruit in S GA, emptied nursing home bedpans or cleaned out a chicken house lately?
what is your point? the experts are all pontificating that we are facing stagflation because the economy is slowing and employers are not hiring. but none of them are talking about all the 7 million jobs that are available. maybe if we still had immigration we would have more job growth,
Excellent post. Thank you.
JB...the 'key' people in the 'stats' world do not, by shank's mare, go out and actually count or measure beans or pork bellies. They receive reports from other office-bound bean counters and statistics sources. They are not story tellers, they are story repeaters. To get REAL numbers that prove out as accurate over time speaks to their honest REPORTING. That is going to change. THAT has changed. They won't get THE TRUTH out because Trump can't handle the truth. Solution: contactuI every 'key' in every segment of the economy that normally sends their info to the department and request a copy. If you and PK and a few other economic translators/code-talkers can't do it all, then just go to a select few numbers sources. Don't wait on the Dept of Labour. It is now corrupted. Go NOW to their sources.
Once the CPI and employment/unemployment figures incorporate more and more"imputation" data as opposed to hard, contemporaneous facts, that's when bad shit goes out, and this is where tRump is taking data critical to the economy at large, and businesses in particular. When it's a question of "making the data fit the policy" — yes, that was a Brit Intelligence summary of Bush's runup to invading Iraq — disaster is not far behind, and here we are, on the cusp of it.
A great point. But who should do it? SIN? Other 538 alums?
Per Josh Marshall (and presuming I’m clear about what he said), BLS was somewhat reducing the data collected prior to the firing of its commissioner. IIRC, it may have been a DOGE action.
The problem is that some federal agencies discredited themselves following 2016 (whether anyone agrees or disagrees with that point is largely irrelevant, the damage is done with a large portion of the population). Inevitability, that makes it much easier to attack and defenestrate any and all federal agencies. None of what is happening is surprising. The lies previously generated have real consequences.
JB: "I know these agencies, all of which are staffed by public servants with high integrity and a strong culture of delivering the most accurate data possible. They would not play along with book-cooking."
Two observations. First, they may not "play along with book-cooking," but that will most likely mean they will join the ranks of the uncounted unemployed. Second, it remains to be seen whether or not there are enough people tasked with cooking the books who will be willing to accept joblessness over playing along when they will know with certainty that losing their own jobs will simply mean someone else collects their paychecks and the books still get cooked.
That is not a position I would want any good person put in, but I won't get a say in the matter.
One conceivable solution to this, though improbable and likely impossible, would be for one or more billionaires, who actually prefer democracy to fascism, to step up and create an independent organization to try to take the place of the BLS. That is hard for me to imagine. The set up time would likely be considerable and I have no idea if it would be possible for such a creation to be able to acquire enough accurate data to create meaningful reports. (The alternative would be to do what Trump might do -- create a phony group to simply publish phony statistics that show what a disaster Trump is and how much damage he's doing to the economy. That group wouldn't even have to exist if Trump were doing it. All that is needed is an announcement that it has been formed, in an undisclosed location in order to protect its employees. Then, the reports would all be issued through Truth Social. Why does something so preposterous sound so normal for Trump?)
Independent Democratic Economic Statistics Bureau:
Extra! Extra! Read all about it -- unemployment rises to 27%. Worse than the Great Depression! Inflation now at 12% and increasing!!! Thousands jump to their deaths as businesses and lives are destroyed!!! Meanwhile, Trump plays golf and cheats!!!
Yep. Ford was complaining that the tariffs on steel, combined with the lower tariffs on completed Japanese vehicles are hard on them. Ford makes trucks. Plus the Mustang, which has no Japanese competitor. Foreign trucks face a 25% tariff imposed by the Johnson administration (called the "chicken tax"). So, basically, Ford is complaining that Trump just leveled the playing field for them.