Jared - thanks for sharing! I’m not cool enough to be on the GS distribution list. :)
I’m interested in how the GS layoff tracker will perform out of sample - my bet is we’ll know pretty soon, via initial claims, whether layoffs really are increasing by a meaningful amount.
Final point - looking at the time series, the layoff tracker has been running above late 2010s levels for the last few years. That contradicts JOLTS
One shouldn't keep chasing noise. These kinds of data are very noisy and a change has to get way outside of the region of normal variation for one to be able to conclude anything in a short time period or two. The graph of Federal workers' unemployment claims is an example of going well beyond normal variation. These month-to-month changes in job data are not.
Seems too cheery! Surely GDP growth and the jobs market get pretty unlinked when what's keeping GDP looking barely OK is AI spending. A few jobs constructing data centers, almost no jobs making chips and servers, pifflingly few jobs in operating data centers.
A no-hiring environment after the Biden boom in hiring has to feel very hard for those who are looking for advancement.
If the goal is working class and middle-America well-being, surely that's been going south all year?
Along with layoffs- it would be good to know some other labor market information such as - labor force participation rates ( up or down),
duration of unemployment- and
to the extent possible - the level of underemployment.
Seems to me that an accurate picture of the state of health in the labor market rests on a lot more than unemployment rates . I used to be able to find much of that information when I taught- but I
don’t get those figures first hand anymore- so it would be nice if JB
Once upon a time Barack or Joe would have carefully poured through your dense eco data points and ask for recommendations, now T trumpets success after success, NFL crowds out other news, soon to be joined by the NBA. Vir, NJ, Mamdani, Newsom must be creating a little nervousness in the MAGA swamps, until Rs in purple states begin to push against T we will continue to tiptoe to detention camps, have your “go bag” ready
Jared - thanks for sharing! I’m not cool enough to be on the GS distribution list. :)
I’m interested in how the GS layoff tracker will perform out of sample - my bet is we’ll know pretty soon, via initial claims, whether layoffs really are increasing by a meaningful amount.
Final point - looking at the time series, the layoff tracker has been running above late 2010s levels for the last few years. That contradicts JOLTS
One shouldn't keep chasing noise. These kinds of data are very noisy and a change has to get way outside of the region of normal variation for one to be able to conclude anything in a short time period or two. The graph of Federal workers' unemployment claims is an example of going well beyond normal variation. These month-to-month changes in job data are not.
Seems too cheery! Surely GDP growth and the jobs market get pretty unlinked when what's keeping GDP looking barely OK is AI spending. A few jobs constructing data centers, almost no jobs making chips and servers, pifflingly few jobs in operating data centers.
A no-hiring environment after the Biden boom in hiring has to feel very hard for those who are looking for advancement.
If the goal is working class and middle-America well-being, surely that's been going south all year?
Along with layoffs- it would be good to know some other labor market information such as - labor force participation rates ( up or down),
duration of unemployment- and
to the extent possible - the level of underemployment.
Seems to me that an accurate picture of the state of health in the labor market rests on a lot more than unemployment rates . I used to be able to find much of that information when I taught- but I
don’t get those figures first hand anymore- so it would be nice if JB
can find it and let us know .
Once upon a time Barack or Joe would have carefully poured through your dense eco data points and ask for recommendations, now T trumpets success after success, NFL crowds out other news, soon to be joined by the NBA. Vir, NJ, Mamdani, Newsom must be creating a little nervousness in the MAGA swamps, until Rs in purple states begin to push against T we will continue to tiptoe to detention camps, have your “go bag” ready