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Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

If I understand this correctly, the core represents essential spending, whereas headline represents discretionary. If that is the case, then one would expect headline to start showing weakness first, with core lagging, maybe by quite a bit of time considering that eating isn't optional.

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Sue Hall's avatar

Jared, you advised against reading too much into the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model going sharply negative at the end of last month. But here it is almost three weeks later, and this morning's estimate is still -2.1 percent. What do you make of that?

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