If I understand this correctly, the core represents essential spending, whereas headline represents discretionary. If that is the case, then one would expect headline to start showing weakness first, with core lagging, maybe by quite a bit of time considering that eating isn't optional.
Jared, you advised against reading too much into the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model going sharply negative at the end of last month. But here it is almost three weeks later, and this morning's estimate is still -2.1 percent. What do you make of that?
"—A key stat from this report is called “core sales,” which is the topline retail sales net of a few volatiles categories (food services, gasoline, autos, building materials). Just like core inflation gives us a better signal on where inflation is heading, core sales is a better predictor of consumer spending for the quarter. It was expected to rise by a mere 0.2% in Feb but it popped up to 1% (all there numbers are nominal but commodity inflation was just 0.1% in Feb, so that’s a hefty real gain)."
This weekend saw a few news items about sales and manufacturing, including automakers not rushing to comply with Trump's edict to bring manufacturing from Canada and Mexico, more store closures and bankruptcies and, of course, Americans not spending on much of anything that isn't groceries under the threat of tariffs that Trump continues to promise for April 2nd. Then, there's Bessent and what he had to say on TV this weekend. Uncertainty, and we have lots of it, dampens things. Then, you have this weekend's natural disasters and the uncertainty of just how much help people will receive after all the cuts to agencies like NOAA, FEMA, etc.
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My daily news post, continuously updated
Things Musk (and Trump) Did... Day 55 | Blog#42
First you gotta find the line then you got to draw the line. Can't Go For That. No Can Do.
If I understand this correctly, the core represents essential spending, whereas headline represents discretionary. If that is the case, then one would expect headline to start showing weakness first, with core lagging, maybe by quite a bit of time considering that eating isn't optional.
Jared, you advised against reading too much into the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model going sharply negative at the end of last month. But here it is almost three weeks later, and this morning's estimate is still -2.1 percent. What do you make of that?
"—A key stat from this report is called “core sales,” which is the topline retail sales net of a few volatiles categories (food services, gasoline, autos, building materials). Just like core inflation gives us a better signal on where inflation is heading, core sales is a better predictor of consumer spending for the quarter. It was expected to rise by a mere 0.2% in Feb but it popped up to 1% (all there numbers are nominal but commodity inflation was just 0.1% in Feb, so that’s a hefty real gain)."
This weekend saw a few news items about sales and manufacturing, including automakers not rushing to comply with Trump's edict to bring manufacturing from Canada and Mexico, more store closures and bankruptcies and, of course, Americans not spending on much of anything that isn't groceries under the threat of tariffs that Trump continues to promise for April 2nd. Then, there's Bessent and what he had to say on TV this weekend. Uncertainty, and we have lots of it, dampens things. Then, you have this weekend's natural disasters and the uncertainty of just how much help people will receive after all the cuts to agencies like NOAA, FEMA, etc.
---
My daily news post, continuously updated
Things Musk (and Trump) Did... Day 55 | Blog#42
First you gotta find the line then you got to draw the line. Can't Go For That. No Can Do.
https://rimaregasblog42.substack.com/p/things-musk-and-trump-did-day-55