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David John Urban's avatar

I'm generally a great fan of your work Jared but you are giving way to much credit to Jason. The failure to defend Bidenomics as illustrated in this piece was a big part of the problem.

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Mickie Morganfield's avatar

The only decent coverage Biden got came in the industry blogs - farming, shipping, manufacturing, solar, etc You'd never have known he sent hundreds of millions to make ports emission free, efficient, lowering the cost of transportation and goods, helping supply chains, if not for the maritime industry - coast to coast, east and west. A priority of Harris since her days in CA where she tackled port community polluters with fines for crimes. Booze got a boost when Joe's Commerce got tariffs eliminated for bourbon - So much more that you only read about if you were on the agency home pages (Interior, Transportation, Commerce, Energy, EPA) or scoured the blogs and local digital reporting - Shame.

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Bob Wenning's avatar

From what I read he seemed to hardly consider Trump's role in leaving the hole he did. His analysis covers 2019 to 2024 - Trump was president 2019 - 20 but he only focuses on 2021- 24. Also Trump begged the Saudis to cut their oil production in 2019 increasing the price of gas to satisfy oil companies and Putin.

With friends like Furman who needs the GOP?

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Kyle Liburd's avatar

His podcast appearance with Jon Stewart and a woman economist whose name I’m blanking on supports your claim. I have had….an aversion to his line of thinking ever since then.

Oddly enough, I went back and read his 2016 economic report about income inequality, where he openly admits the Obama administration did not cut the gap as much as they’d hoped.

Somehow, someway he has not developed as an economic thinker since then. He manages to avoid the record breaking stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions, and rapid growth of executive compensation comparable to median employee wage. Of course, this would require him to admit the failures of the Phillips curve.

Biden & co. did a good job with the 1% tax on stock buybacks. Obviously not high enough, but the tax itself serves as a signal to everyone that this ludicrous practice has been going on unregulated.

The disasters of the Trump administration are too many to count, but Jason seemingly breezed through the covid deaths and changed habits as negative economic factors. Additionally, he avoids Trump begging Xi Jingping to buy US farm goods amidst the trade war as well as the drastic decrease in **legal** immigration under the Trump presidency which further explains economic problems.

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SpongeBob PentagonPants's avatar

Even an amateur non economist jackass like me recognized something was f'd up when Jason claimed no supply shock due to the pandemic.

So I wonder if heritage dink tank types didn't backdoor funnel some $ to Harvard to in effect purchase some of those fox chyron claims

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Free Will's avatar

We met once, at the University of Chicago. I quoted Milton Friedman: “Federal government spending IS the level of taxation...not a stimulus.” Uncharacteristically, you were at a loss for words. It might be rare to hear Friedman quotes in Washington, DC or even Chicago.

Use of a phrase like “realistic counterfactual” is often just a smear: anyone who disagrees or criticizes is “unrealistic.” The Biden administration’s policies, particularly the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) and the perpetuation of a COVID-era spending baseline, fueled inflation and inequality, while undermining equitable recovery and economic growth.

Consider this counterfactual: ending lockdowns by December, 2020, reopening schools, and accelerating vaccine distribution (available by May 2020) without locking in the COVID budget loaded up with state bailouts, mandates and new expensive regulations. The ARP’s $1.9 trillion, including $350 billion in state aid, was counterproductive in an already recovering economy. Inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022, driven by this spending and the seeming "forever lockdown"...except for mass violent protests. The regressive tax of inflation eroded real wages by 2.6% from 2020 to 2022, while over 100,000 small businesses closed permanently by 2021.

The claim “key sectors where markets were underinvesting” echoes centralized Soviet five-year plans that invested for political reasons. The ARP’s non-emergency spending, like state pension bailouts, benefited entrenched interests. New regulations (effectively taxes), burdened small firms. Keynesian stimulus ignores Friedman’s insight: federal spending redistributes wealth inefficiently, often to the wealthy and to sectors that do not need subsidies. The Federal Reserve’s 2023 Survey shows the top 10% captured 90% of wealth gains post-2020, while workers faced stagnant wages. Billionaires expanded wealth exponentially; the working class barely survived on credit card debt.

Let’s evaluate this counterfactual:

Cut spending to pre-COVID levels and freeze it there for five years, as a stimulus and an inflation cure.

Reduce taxes, and streamline/eliminate regulations. This could empower businesses, and lower the cost of investment capital for everyone. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act drove 3.5% GDP growth in 2018 and record-low unemployment for minorities. Cut taxes for small businesses, workers, R&D, and capital investment.

Deregulate and remove Non-Tariff barriers to trade: negotiate truly free trade agreements for the first time in over 100 years.

I'm sure your team discussed these types of reforms extensively. It would be fascinating to hear your analysis of plausible impact of this counterfactual. What advice would you give President Trump today? Another "bailout" package or a shot at growth for everyone?

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Chiraag Bains's avatar

Very helpful analysis, Jared. I recall having to buy a car in late 2021 and the chips supply chain crisis hit me hard in the wallet.

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Ben's avatar

If the trade was stimulus checks --->Justice Jackson & inflation--->President Trump then politicos were wrong.

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