All of these experienced folks are talking about the policies we need to help working people. And I absolutely support these policies. But there are critical unrecognized assumptions behind all of this discussion that are wrong.
The first wrong assumption is people vote for policies that help them, and conversely will vote against politicians with harmful policies (the "consequences" fallacy). The problem is, this isn't what drives voters.
As a longtime marketing exec, we know that messaging (ads) talking about facts (policies) just don't work. Messages with emotional stories work. And long-term messaging strategies need deeper themes that emotionally resonate and support each other. So sitting back and expecting people to turn on Republicans for actions 18 months before the next election or even one month ahead will fail.
The much bigger wrong assumption is that voters will even know about any of these policies and actions by Trump, Musk or his other authoritarian thugs. Most people pay absolutely no attention to politics or national affairs. They couldn't tell you the name of their Senators or Governor, much less the latest mass firing of goverment workers or breach of the law by Trump.
And many of the voters who do pay attention get their information from media controlled by the right-wing. I don't mean traditiona media owned by billionaire ring-kissers like Bezos but pure propaganda outlets like Fox. This audience gets almost all of their information about the world from a closed right-wing set of media, all repeating the same themes over and over.
When you have a captured audience, you can move from partisan spin on the facts to inventing your own facts and conspiracies, because the audience won't hear anything contradicting it. That's why talking to someone who gets their beliefs from that media is like talking to someone who is in a cult or hearing voices. They sound delusional, unconnected to reality. That's because they are unconnected from reality. Their worldview is carefully manipulated by a sophisticated right-wing messaging strategy, by propaganda.
The media people use in daily life has dramatically shifted to social media in recent years and within that moved to new media using video and sound like TikTok, Instagram, and podcasting. That new media is filled with right-wing messages. The media is often not explicitly about politics or news but has subtle constant messaging undermining Democrats, trust in the government, and heightening concerns about the economy, freedom, the latest hot button issues like trans people, all the ways the right attacks the center and left.
A recent study by Blue Rose Research found illuminating trends in voter data from November's election compared to recent elections (see Ezra Klein's podcast with researcher Daniel Shor). There has been a shift where voters with more information are now much more likely to vote Democratic, while voters with less information vote for Republicans or don't bother to vote.
There's an even more critical red flag in the data - younger people use social media as their main source of information and TikTok users were 8% more likely to vote Republican that expected. TikTok of course is owned by a Chinese company and like any company from mainland China under the strong influence of the government.
The top nine podcasters last fall were all rightwing. They weren't necessarily discussing politics, that would be too boring and wouldn't get a big audience, but their content was filled with rightwing messages.
The result is that we cannot assume voters all see the same information that we see. Or will react to impacts in their lives the way we expect. Even if some Trump policies do hit home for voters in grip of rightwing media, that media will blame others (Biden, Democrats, foreigners, immigrants).
We live in two different media worlds, one completely controlled by rightwing messaging, the other under attack as the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN and others increasingly bend the knee towards Trump and soft-pedal scandals by Trump while amplifying rightwing attack issues against Democrats.
The result is that Democratic messages don't break through and even the news that is unfavorable to Republicans is not heard by people using rightwing controlled media. Democratic ad blitzes in the last two months of a general election have little hope of changing many minds stewed in four years or more of daily rightwing propaganda.
So when we read surveys of voter attitudes we can't accept these as the result of the voters lived experience. We have to ask: what influenced those attitudes? Increasingly it's the media they use.
We won't get voters support back by finding the perfect messages. We need to get our messages through to them.
I carried on the productivity trend pre-2005 to date and the average American worker (EU as well) is around $60 000 or $3 000 worse off than they would otherwise be (sorry, but I do like the singular pronoun they). Add in all the other pressures: the poorer States are falling behind, if you don’t have a good education you will struggle and so on.
So what you expected and what you got don’t agree. You are angry because it has nothing to do with you. Therefore it is someone else’s fault and it’s either the government directly or something they allowed to happen. Actually it’s just life; you can’t force higher productivity growth.
The right have figured out how to manage and inflame that anger through massive disinformation and blatant lying. Astonishingly people buy into the idea that people poorer than them who work hard to supply them with cheaper goods are to blame. Canadians supplying you with cheap energy, migrant workers in vegetable picking and meat packing, Chinese providing decent quality and cheap clothing. Drugs are the fault of the supplier, unlike guns which are apparently the fault of the user. The woke crowd, the deep state, the universities, LGBT: outsiders.
Centrists believe in fact and truth. They believe in debate so that people can form views based on fact and truth. They have yet to figure out how to respond to lies. They have yet to figure out how to get across that hate doesn’t typically have good outcomes.
I really hope that they can figure it out soon. I have no idea. At times I have tried to tentatively suggest not all refugees are terrorists, criminals, spongers, come from inferior cultures; just doesn’t register.
This text demonstrates how complex things can be. Despite strong arguments, much remains interpretation and conjecture. To give these interpretations and conjectures more certainty, individual points must be researched and substantiated using scientific methods. This is precisely why Trump's "truths" work so well. Most people lack the patience or intellectual capacity to grapple with such highly complex topics; they would much rather believe simple lies that make them appear smart.
Become the Workers Party Again. That is exactly what the Biden admin was trying to do - and succeeding by so many metrics. You know it from being on the inside. I know it from being on the outside and paying attention to what was happening rather than what corp media said the people were saying. Thanks for joining Substack.
Yes, Biden had labor friendly policies but I wouldn't say they were succeeding by any metric because they haven't had enough time to bear demonstrable fruit and it's not clear they ever would have to the extent the Dems could claim victory.
But there's a 600 lb gorilla in the room - manufacturing isn't what it used to be - we simply don't need as many workers as we did when NAFTA was enacted. The U.S. manufacturing ship has sailed with no return date. You can still be the worker's party but it won't mean the return of manufacturing. That emotional appeal will eventually run out of gas.
China is a very shrewd competitor largely devoid of U.S. style internecine politics and without tariffs would be eating our lunch in automotive manufacturing and probably eventually the semiconductor sector. Our problem is much, much larger than it seemed just a few years ago - it's China Incorporated.
So, the only really effective Democratic mantra in the short term has to be tax the rich (bring back that 90% marginal tier) and massively amp up engineering and scientific R&D. While we're at it, beef up social security and substantially nationalize healthcare. That's a mouthful!
I've come to the realization that the amount of energy and time required to bring about such monumental societal change in the face of MAGAtism is far greater than just seceding from the nation, a notion that not that long ago would elicit snickers at best but now makes a whole lot of sense.
There is a silver lining to Trump's snub of Europe and NATO - they are going to become more united against despotism, militarily and economically. Theoretically this would significantly lower the financial burden of such a large U.S. military in Bluemerica, the 13 or so states that should give the MAGAtes the middle finger. Imagine how much a pure Liberal society could accomplish without the burden of Movement Conservatism and a bloated military budget. I recommend reading the collected works of George Lakoff to understand the intransigence of Conservatism. It can be distilled into one simple idea - Movement Conservatism needs an enemy to survive, so cut them off at the knees.
i have not read Ezra Klein's book but have heard him talk multiple times about building homes and how many homes are built in Texas versus California. He blames blue state policies for CA's issues. I live in LA County and can say that while CEQA does stop/slow some bldg (apts, condos, esp lower income) and should be reformed, policies coming out of the legislature and gov's office do push for needed housing and require planning for it. It's wealthier ppl--Dem and Repub--in single family neighborhoods (where they have the benefit of tremendous appreciation in home value) that fight tooth and nail to prevent residential development anywhere nearby, even on a busy commercial street. They fight anything they believe will lower vaunted property values. Single family home neighborhoods can't be built here--no more available land--and shouldn't even be attemped in new areas of high fire risk. This has not been an issue--yet--in TX. They keep building large homes on big properties farther out from cities. Except for commuting times and climate change (big consequences), all's fine. But wait til they run out of vacant land and developers want to put in apts near any large homes. That'll change their tune in a hurry.
All of these experienced folks are talking about the policies we need to help working people. And I absolutely support these policies. But there are critical unrecognized assumptions behind all of this discussion that are wrong.
The first wrong assumption is people vote for policies that help them, and conversely will vote against politicians with harmful policies (the "consequences" fallacy). The problem is, this isn't what drives voters.
As a longtime marketing exec, we know that messaging (ads) talking about facts (policies) just don't work. Messages with emotional stories work. And long-term messaging strategies need deeper themes that emotionally resonate and support each other. So sitting back and expecting people to turn on Republicans for actions 18 months before the next election or even one month ahead will fail.
The much bigger wrong assumption is that voters will even know about any of these policies and actions by Trump, Musk or his other authoritarian thugs. Most people pay absolutely no attention to politics or national affairs. They couldn't tell you the name of their Senators or Governor, much less the latest mass firing of goverment workers or breach of the law by Trump.
And many of the voters who do pay attention get their information from media controlled by the right-wing. I don't mean traditiona media owned by billionaire ring-kissers like Bezos but pure propaganda outlets like Fox. This audience gets almost all of their information about the world from a closed right-wing set of media, all repeating the same themes over and over.
When you have a captured audience, you can move from partisan spin on the facts to inventing your own facts and conspiracies, because the audience won't hear anything contradicting it. That's why talking to someone who gets their beliefs from that media is like talking to someone who is in a cult or hearing voices. They sound delusional, unconnected to reality. That's because they are unconnected from reality. Their worldview is carefully manipulated by a sophisticated right-wing messaging strategy, by propaganda.
The media people use in daily life has dramatically shifted to social media in recent years and within that moved to new media using video and sound like TikTok, Instagram, and podcasting. That new media is filled with right-wing messages. The media is often not explicitly about politics or news but has subtle constant messaging undermining Democrats, trust in the government, and heightening concerns about the economy, freedom, the latest hot button issues like trans people, all the ways the right attacks the center and left.
A recent study by Blue Rose Research found illuminating trends in voter data from November's election compared to recent elections (see Ezra Klein's podcast with researcher Daniel Shor). There has been a shift where voters with more information are now much more likely to vote Democratic, while voters with less information vote for Republicans or don't bother to vote.
There's an even more critical red flag in the data - younger people use social media as their main source of information and TikTok users were 8% more likely to vote Republican that expected. TikTok of course is owned by a Chinese company and like any company from mainland China under the strong influence of the government.
The top nine podcasters last fall were all rightwing. They weren't necessarily discussing politics, that would be too boring and wouldn't get a big audience, but their content was filled with rightwing messages.
The result is that we cannot assume voters all see the same information that we see. Or will react to impacts in their lives the way we expect. Even if some Trump policies do hit home for voters in grip of rightwing media, that media will blame others (Biden, Democrats, foreigners, immigrants).
We live in two different media worlds, one completely controlled by rightwing messaging, the other under attack as the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN and others increasingly bend the knee towards Trump and soft-pedal scandals by Trump while amplifying rightwing attack issues against Democrats.
The result is that Democratic messages don't break through and even the news that is unfavorable to Republicans is not heard by people using rightwing controlled media. Democratic ad blitzes in the last two months of a general election have little hope of changing many minds stewed in four years or more of daily rightwing propaganda.
So when we read surveys of voter attitudes we can't accept these as the result of the voters lived experience. We have to ask: what influenced those attitudes? Increasingly it's the media they use.
We won't get voters support back by finding the perfect messages. We need to get our messages through to them.
Our problem isn't just messaging, it's the media.
I carried on the productivity trend pre-2005 to date and the average American worker (EU as well) is around $60 000 or $3 000 worse off than they would otherwise be (sorry, but I do like the singular pronoun they). Add in all the other pressures: the poorer States are falling behind, if you don’t have a good education you will struggle and so on.
So what you expected and what you got don’t agree. You are angry because it has nothing to do with you. Therefore it is someone else’s fault and it’s either the government directly or something they allowed to happen. Actually it’s just life; you can’t force higher productivity growth.
The right have figured out how to manage and inflame that anger through massive disinformation and blatant lying. Astonishingly people buy into the idea that people poorer than them who work hard to supply them with cheaper goods are to blame. Canadians supplying you with cheap energy, migrant workers in vegetable picking and meat packing, Chinese providing decent quality and cheap clothing. Drugs are the fault of the supplier, unlike guns which are apparently the fault of the user. The woke crowd, the deep state, the universities, LGBT: outsiders.
Centrists believe in fact and truth. They believe in debate so that people can form views based on fact and truth. They have yet to figure out how to respond to lies. They have yet to figure out how to get across that hate doesn’t typically have good outcomes.
I really hope that they can figure it out soon. I have no idea. At times I have tried to tentatively suggest not all refugees are terrorists, criminals, spongers, come from inferior cultures; just doesn’t register.
This text demonstrates how complex things can be. Despite strong arguments, much remains interpretation and conjecture. To give these interpretations and conjectures more certainty, individual points must be researched and substantiated using scientific methods. This is precisely why Trump's "truths" work so well. Most people lack the patience or intellectual capacity to grapple with such highly complex topics; they would much rather believe simple lies that make them appear smart.
Good work.
Become the Workers Party Again. That is exactly what the Biden admin was trying to do - and succeeding by so many metrics. You know it from being on the inside. I know it from being on the outside and paying attention to what was happening rather than what corp media said the people were saying. Thanks for joining Substack.
Yes, Biden had labor friendly policies but I wouldn't say they were succeeding by any metric because they haven't had enough time to bear demonstrable fruit and it's not clear they ever would have to the extent the Dems could claim victory.
But there's a 600 lb gorilla in the room - manufacturing isn't what it used to be - we simply don't need as many workers as we did when NAFTA was enacted. The U.S. manufacturing ship has sailed with no return date. You can still be the worker's party but it won't mean the return of manufacturing. That emotional appeal will eventually run out of gas.
China is a very shrewd competitor largely devoid of U.S. style internecine politics and without tariffs would be eating our lunch in automotive manufacturing and probably eventually the semiconductor sector. Our problem is much, much larger than it seemed just a few years ago - it's China Incorporated.
So, the only really effective Democratic mantra in the short term has to be tax the rich (bring back that 90% marginal tier) and massively amp up engineering and scientific R&D. While we're at it, beef up social security and substantially nationalize healthcare. That's a mouthful!
I've come to the realization that the amount of energy and time required to bring about such monumental societal change in the face of MAGAtism is far greater than just seceding from the nation, a notion that not that long ago would elicit snickers at best but now makes a whole lot of sense.
There is a silver lining to Trump's snub of Europe and NATO - they are going to become more united against despotism, militarily and economically. Theoretically this would significantly lower the financial burden of such a large U.S. military in Bluemerica, the 13 or so states that should give the MAGAtes the middle finger. Imagine how much a pure Liberal society could accomplish without the burden of Movement Conservatism and a bloated military budget. I recommend reading the collected works of George Lakoff to understand the intransigence of Conservatism. It can be distilled into one simple idea - Movement Conservatism needs an enemy to survive, so cut them off at the knees.
E Pluribus Blunum - sans the Cons!
i have not read Ezra Klein's book but have heard him talk multiple times about building homes and how many homes are built in Texas versus California. He blames blue state policies for CA's issues. I live in LA County and can say that while CEQA does stop/slow some bldg (apts, condos, esp lower income) and should be reformed, policies coming out of the legislature and gov's office do push for needed housing and require planning for it. It's wealthier ppl--Dem and Repub--in single family neighborhoods (where they have the benefit of tremendous appreciation in home value) that fight tooth and nail to prevent residential development anywhere nearby, even on a busy commercial street. They fight anything they believe will lower vaunted property values. Single family home neighborhoods can't be built here--no more available land--and shouldn't even be attemped in new areas of high fire risk. This has not been an issue--yet--in TX. They keep building large homes on big properties farther out from cities. Except for commuting times and climate change (big consequences), all's fine. But wait til they run out of vacant land and developers want to put in apts near any large homes. That'll change their tune in a hurry.
Great post. I will check out what Sherrod has to say.
Very true, Jared. The bakers should get a reasonable slice of the economic pie.