"There is internal Republican dissent on many of the above issues, in no small part because some of these members recognize how much the cuts will hurt their constituents."
It is not their constituents they care about, but their next election. In the past, Republicans and Trump have been able to rely on the stupidity, gullibility, and depravity of their voters, but it is possible, though not guaranteed, that when enough people lose their health insurance or are even less able to adequately feed their children, they will finally wake up. I wish I thought that was guaranteed, but I have such a low regard for Trump and Republican supporters that I don't know what they will do.
I should add that even if voters revolt in 2026, that won't mean they are any smarter or better informed. It will mean they are mad. Then, when nothing is done to improve their lives before 2028, who knows what they will do. Their habits are unlikely to have changed. They still won't spend the time they need to access reliable information and they will still be susceptible to being conned, as they were in 2024. Everything anyone needed to know to utterly reject Trump in November 2024 was already well established, but 77 million voters chose to rely on a depraved criminal, a sexual predator, and a man if one paid any attention to him is obviously both very stupid and extraordinarily ignorant. Sadly, all too many voters share one or both of those qualities and thus are ill-prepared to vote responsibly.
I admit, I am far more pessimistic about the future of this country, because I have no reason to believe that the quality of our electorate will improve. It is more likely to get worse as more and more people turn to social media to be "informed." What would one expect if someone relies on Joe Rogan to tell them how to vote or some self-appointed "influencer" who has gained a following for some reason. We need a vastly improved civic education not only for the young, but for adults. If a citizen has no idea what causes inflation or who or what is responsible for it, how can they possibly know which candidate to vote for. In November, they voted for the candidate who said he would do x, y, and z on "Day One," and once Trump took office he did none of those things. Only a fool or very gullible person would have been surprised.
The Democrats would have to loudly, persistently and clearly hammer the Republicans for this bill. Unfortunately, their willingness and ability to fight is far from clear. Despite their apparent hopes, the press won't clearly communicate the contents of the budget bill unless pushed hard. Unfortunately, the Republicans are better at messaging lies than the Democrats are at messaging the truth
It's not as if it's difficult to communicate the essence in a few simple sentences.
I'd love it if someone could convince me I'm being too negative.
It doesn't necessarily matter if the "press" clearly communicates the contents of the bill, since millions of Americans are not paying attention at all. It is almost impossible for me to imagine how voters could not have been aware of whom and what they were voting for in 2024. Trump's depravity, idiocy, and ignorance were only hidden from people who are either very stupid or completely disengaged.
Paul Krugman, in his generally excellent Substack has said he doesn't blame people for not paying attention because they "have lives, and jobs," etc. That is among the few things Krugman has said that I adamantly reject. If people don't pay attention, they can't vote responsibly (see November 2024), and we end up where we are now. People have a responsibility, an obligation to be at least minimally well-informed. It doesn't take that much time, although, since most Americans have little or no knowledge of the fundamentals of democracy, politics, economics, and the law they are at a huge disadvantage. Simply knowing that something is happening may not help, if they understand none of why it is happening and who is responsible.
Even if this bill passes, it devastates lives, and as a result voters reject Republicans and the Democrats take back the House in 2027, that will be good for one house for one election. It's not as though that will automatically make voters willing to spend the time necessary to be informed. It will be a vote out or anger, not knowledge or commitment. (I don't think Dems believe they have a real chance of regaining the Senate majority -- the map is badly against them.)
We need vastly better civics education in middle and high school. I'd go further than that, but it would never fly in a country where rights matter and responsibilities don't.
Don't you worry. Everything is done according to John Calvin's theology. If you enjoy God's Grace you will be OK. If not, you must suffer enough to deserve it. And everyone is convinced that the fanatics are the followers of the Ayatollah. Such a lack of self awareness.
Good luck undoing the decades of Republicans doubling down on Saint Reagan’s claim that tax cuts for fat cats magically pay for themselves. That our mainstream “liberal: media has refused to tell the public that that has always been a colossal, budget-busting lie helped make that fairy tale stick.
That same mainstream media has had no problem slamming Democrats’ spending on programs which promote the public good because those programs add too much to the debt. They seem to be drinking the right’s “austerity for thee but not me” Kool Aid. This isn’t just a problem in the US media. The UK economist Simon Wren-Lewis has written about this phenomenon — what he calls mediamacro. The mostly conservative press has pushed the broadcast media, including the BBC, to adopt the austerity agenda:
"Whilst BBC coverage lacked the strident editorialising seen in the press, it still operated within a framework which stressed the necessity of pre-emptive austerity to placate the financial markets.”
This is a nice summary of the studies that look at the impact of the bill, including those that are mere fan fiction of Trump. But the real impact of this legislation also needs to be documented at the level of citizens.
If Democrats hope to return to majority power, they need to say big things about small things. The mother who watches her child suffer a treatable disease but who cannot afford treatment. The family that cannot afford a house because of mortgage interest rates rising. The father who loses his job because tariffs put his factory out of commission due to unaffordable parts.
The painful consequences of this bill need to be highlighted at the local level but cast through every available media possible. The bill will spark outrage, but without a proposed approach for a better future, any political gains will be temporary and illusory. Democrats need to express their values and proposed ways to put those into action. Those proposals need to be focused on neighborhoods and communities. Tip O’Neill can still teach us.
Readers here know I’ve been among the many fighting the monster budget bill moving through Congress—a bill that:
—Represents the largest upward transfer of wealth in modern U.S. history;
—Slashes Medicaid, Medicare, and food aid to partly pay for tax cuts to the ultra-rich;
—Supercharges the deficit, likely hiking interest rates on homes, cars, and credit cards;
—Is wildly unpopular across the political spectrum (and sinks further the more people learn);
—Squanders precious resources, making it harder to address the affordability crisis crushing the working and middle class.
Until this bill is either defeated or passed, we need to spotlight its damage at every opportunity. There is GOP dissent—some Republicans actually grasp how deeply this will hurt their own voters. But donor pressure is a hell of a drug. And with the reconciliation process letting the Senate bypass Democrats entirely, the bill has momentum.
That’s why it’s vital to hold these politicians accountable—not just for the immediate pain if the bill passes, but for the long-term economic wreckage it will cause. That includes:
—Calling out the fantasy math claiming the bill “pays for itself.” Some GOP estimates show deficit reduction starting this year—a laughable break from nonpartisan forecasts (see Duke and Furman).
—Tracking cuts to Medicaid and SNAP: who’s losing coverage, what are the added costs?
—Measuring the pressure this puts on rural hospitals and red-state health infrastructure.
—Documenting the kill-off of clean energy projects to pay for oil subsidies and tax breaks.
—Following how much Treasury will have to borrow—and what that does to debt service, rates, and energy prices.
This is about more than a bad bill. It’s about a political class willing to inflict generational harm to appease a handful of donors. So yes, fight the bill’s passage. But also: take notes. Get your baselines ready. Call out the lies. Track the damage. And name names.
Because without consequences, politics won’t get better—only worse.
Imagine a future where the bill becomes law more or less as it stands now and the democrats control congress and the presidency by significant margins ......
By this time it will be obvious which cuts caused the most damage and I imagine those programs will be rebuilt. It will take time but at least we know how they worked the first time. And better late than never.
And I imagine a long list of constitutional amendments to explicitly constrain the president in areas like tariffs, pardons, grifting, ..... Thanks for the ideas Don!
"There is internal Republican dissent on many of the above issues, in no small part because some of these members recognize how much the cuts will hurt their constituents."
It is not their constituents they care about, but their next election. In the past, Republicans and Trump have been able to rely on the stupidity, gullibility, and depravity of their voters, but it is possible, though not guaranteed, that when enough people lose their health insurance or are even less able to adequately feed their children, they will finally wake up. I wish I thought that was guaranteed, but I have such a low regard for Trump and Republican supporters that I don't know what they will do.
I should add that even if voters revolt in 2026, that won't mean they are any smarter or better informed. It will mean they are mad. Then, when nothing is done to improve their lives before 2028, who knows what they will do. Their habits are unlikely to have changed. They still won't spend the time they need to access reliable information and they will still be susceptible to being conned, as they were in 2024. Everything anyone needed to know to utterly reject Trump in November 2024 was already well established, but 77 million voters chose to rely on a depraved criminal, a sexual predator, and a man if one paid any attention to him is obviously both very stupid and extraordinarily ignorant. Sadly, all too many voters share one or both of those qualities and thus are ill-prepared to vote responsibly.
I admit, I am far more pessimistic about the future of this country, because I have no reason to believe that the quality of our electorate will improve. It is more likely to get worse as more and more people turn to social media to be "informed." What would one expect if someone relies on Joe Rogan to tell them how to vote or some self-appointed "influencer" who has gained a following for some reason. We need a vastly improved civic education not only for the young, but for adults. If a citizen has no idea what causes inflation or who or what is responsible for it, how can they possibly know which candidate to vote for. In November, they voted for the candidate who said he would do x, y, and z on "Day One," and once Trump took office he did none of those things. Only a fool or very gullible person would have been surprised.
The Democrats would have to loudly, persistently and clearly hammer the Republicans for this bill. Unfortunately, their willingness and ability to fight is far from clear. Despite their apparent hopes, the press won't clearly communicate the contents of the budget bill unless pushed hard. Unfortunately, the Republicans are better at messaging lies than the Democrats are at messaging the truth
It's not as if it's difficult to communicate the essence in a few simple sentences.
I'd love it if someone could convince me I'm being too negative.
It doesn't necessarily matter if the "press" clearly communicates the contents of the bill, since millions of Americans are not paying attention at all. It is almost impossible for me to imagine how voters could not have been aware of whom and what they were voting for in 2024. Trump's depravity, idiocy, and ignorance were only hidden from people who are either very stupid or completely disengaged.
Paul Krugman, in his generally excellent Substack has said he doesn't blame people for not paying attention because they "have lives, and jobs," etc. That is among the few things Krugman has said that I adamantly reject. If people don't pay attention, they can't vote responsibly (see November 2024), and we end up where we are now. People have a responsibility, an obligation to be at least minimally well-informed. It doesn't take that much time, although, since most Americans have little or no knowledge of the fundamentals of democracy, politics, economics, and the law they are at a huge disadvantage. Simply knowing that something is happening may not help, if they understand none of why it is happening and who is responsible.
Even if this bill passes, it devastates lives, and as a result voters reject Republicans and the Democrats take back the House in 2027, that will be good for one house for one election. It's not as though that will automatically make voters willing to spend the time necessary to be informed. It will be a vote out or anger, not knowledge or commitment. (I don't think Dems believe they have a real chance of regaining the Senate majority -- the map is badly against them.)
We need vastly better civics education in middle and high school. I'd go further than that, but it would never fly in a country where rights matter and responsibilities don't.
Oh, and winning back the House depends on there being free and fair mid-term elections. Who thinks that is guaranteed with Trump in the White House?
Don't you worry. Everything is done according to John Calvin's theology. If you enjoy God's Grace you will be OK. If not, you must suffer enough to deserve it. And everyone is convinced that the fanatics are the followers of the Ayatollah. Such a lack of self awareness.
Good luck undoing the decades of Republicans doubling down on Saint Reagan’s claim that tax cuts for fat cats magically pay for themselves. That our mainstream “liberal: media has refused to tell the public that that has always been a colossal, budget-busting lie helped make that fairy tale stick.
That same mainstream media has had no problem slamming Democrats’ spending on programs which promote the public good because those programs add too much to the debt. They seem to be drinking the right’s “austerity for thee but not me” Kool Aid. This isn’t just a problem in the US media. The UK economist Simon Wren-Lewis has written about this phenomenon — what he calls mediamacro. The mostly conservative press has pushed the broadcast media, including the BBC, to adopt the austerity agenda:
"Whilst BBC coverage lacked the strident editorialising seen in the press, it still operated within a framework which stressed the necessity of pre-emptive austerity to placate the financial markets.”
https://cepr.org/voxeu/blogs-and-reviews/how-broadcast-media-created-mediamacro
This is a nice summary of the studies that look at the impact of the bill, including those that are mere fan fiction of Trump. But the real impact of this legislation also needs to be documented at the level of citizens.
If Democrats hope to return to majority power, they need to say big things about small things. The mother who watches her child suffer a treatable disease but who cannot afford treatment. The family that cannot afford a house because of mortgage interest rates rising. The father who loses his job because tariffs put his factory out of commission due to unaffordable parts.
The painful consequences of this bill need to be highlighted at the local level but cast through every available media possible. The bill will spark outrage, but without a proposed approach for a better future, any political gains will be temporary and illusory. Democrats need to express their values and proposed ways to put those into action. Those proposals need to be focused on neighborhoods and communities. Tip O’Neill can still teach us.
Readers here know I’ve been among the many fighting the monster budget bill moving through Congress—a bill that:
—Represents the largest upward transfer of wealth in modern U.S. history;
—Slashes Medicaid, Medicare, and food aid to partly pay for tax cuts to the ultra-rich;
—Supercharges the deficit, likely hiking interest rates on homes, cars, and credit cards;
—Is wildly unpopular across the political spectrum (and sinks further the more people learn);
—Squanders precious resources, making it harder to address the affordability crisis crushing the working and middle class.
Until this bill is either defeated or passed, we need to spotlight its damage at every opportunity. There is GOP dissent—some Republicans actually grasp how deeply this will hurt their own voters. But donor pressure is a hell of a drug. And with the reconciliation process letting the Senate bypass Democrats entirely, the bill has momentum.
That’s why it’s vital to hold these politicians accountable—not just for the immediate pain if the bill passes, but for the long-term economic wreckage it will cause. That includes:
—Calling out the fantasy math claiming the bill “pays for itself.” Some GOP estimates show deficit reduction starting this year—a laughable break from nonpartisan forecasts (see Duke and Furman).
—Tracking cuts to Medicaid and SNAP: who’s losing coverage, what are the added costs?
—Measuring the pressure this puts on rural hospitals and red-state health infrastructure.
—Documenting the kill-off of clean energy projects to pay for oil subsidies and tax breaks.
—Following how much Treasury will have to borrow—and what that does to debt service, rates, and energy prices.
This is about more than a bad bill. It’s about a political class willing to inflict generational harm to appease a handful of donors. So yes, fight the bill’s passage. But also: take notes. Get your baselines ready. Call out the lies. Track the damage. And name names.
Because without consequences, politics won’t get better—only worse.
You may like my stack, Burnt Ground. JosephZeigler.substack.com
Imagine a future where the bill becomes law more or less as it stands now and the democrats control congress and the presidency by significant margins ......
The top tax rate in 1978 was 70% (https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/historical-income-tax-rates-brackets/) and in 1960 was 91%. I imagine those top rates coming back, along with a wealth tax. Probably can't make it retroactive.
By this time it will be obvious which cuts caused the most damage and I imagine those programs will be rebuilt. It will take time but at least we know how they worked the first time. And better late than never.
And I imagine a long list of constitutional amendments to explicitly constrain the president in areas like tariffs, pardons, grifting, ..... Thanks for the ideas Don!