It's a trivial idea from people who don't understand economic measurement. But attention must be paid as there's something very worrisome potentially going on here.
I don't think the motivation is even as deep as you say. I think it's just, Trump is taking a wrecking ball to govt, this is going to make GDP fall, they can make that look "less bad" by not counting it.
They are not playing in any ballpark. They don't play well with others. They are playing in their own sandbox and there is nothing that is too stupid or ruinous for them if they see some delusional benefit. So no expectations are too low and we shouldn't be surprised when they go there.
"It's a trivial idea from people who don't understand economic measurement."
Or... it's from people whose ill-intent they want to obscure from public view. Isn't that, in large part, the whole intent of the destruction we've been witnessing in key departments of our government?
Can the Trump administration be sued for playing fast and loose with vital economic data? We know that the Senate and the House (as currently constituted) will default on their duties.
Technically yes. And, as I understand it, numerous Democratic State Attorneys General are doing just that. I believe there are roughly seventy cases going through the courts right now - with many more to come.
Is it possible that it’s because they want to better hide where government spending goes in future? i.e. not infrastructure or roads but cryptocurrency reserves and various other grifts?
Corrupting the consumer price index has to be a high priority for these crooks, as tariffs and deportations make prices surge. Social security recipients and TIPS owners for starters are going to be royally screwed by our King.
And we're all going to sit there and take it, pitifully.
I can't agree with your closing sentence. I for one will do everything I can to fight this. I was at the protest in front of Faux News headquarters just this Tuesday.
Attention King MAGA and Skunk Musk - Hands off my Social Security!
When the notion that the US government might “massage” the economic data has come up in the past, I’ve always countered that the people who do this important work are professionals who care first and foremost about accuracy and who see their clientele primarily as users in the private sector. Maintaining their reputations for first-class work would also have been a contributing if not a driving factor. But for the first time I’m not confident of this view anymore, mainly because in the current environment anyone who stands in the way of meddling will be at risk of losing their jobs.
I agree that taking government spending out of the GDP calculation makes no sense. I would only add that, especially insofar as that spending counts as services, it would reflect the right-wing view that those services are worthless if not counterproductive. The main concern I have goes to the integrity of other data sets, such as those underlying the employment reports and the price indexes. Perhaps it is time for the National Bureau of Economic Research to launch a counter offensive by running parallel data collection operations focused on areas where private sources are lacking (the ADP data on employment may help cover that area).
It's a nice idea, but who controls the data? That's the problem.
As for your point about the people doing the work, that's why King MAGA selects only from the Fresh Water/Milton Friedman crowd. Their reputations precisely revolve around being good at BS.
Say what you want about the Fresh Water crowd, I doubt that many of them approve the current situation. And really, what side do you think Milton Friedman would be on at this juncture?
Is the proposal to just redefine what is meant by GDP, or to actually stop tracking the data of what is produced by the public sector? If it was the former, I'd be fine to have different names for different measures (say GDP1, GDP2, etc). If it was the latter, that would of course be crazy.
The problem here is we have no way of knowing. Picture the Orange Turd sticking out his tongue and saying "I'm not gonna tell ya and you can't make me, nya nya na nya nya!"
That's the level to which our government has stooped.
Maybe he just doesn't want what we spend to support him and his little buddies. He is by far the most expensive, most wasteful government official we've ever had. He'd rather his adoring public doesn't see the billions he cost that no other ever has.
And with this Evil Clown in Chief, he could even potentially be charged with some Trumped up "violation" and fed to the new Injustice department for prosecution and a Kangaroo trial.
Clearly the deviations from trend are affected by recessions, but it sure appears that the private share seems to recover well under Democratic Presidents.
You’re absolutely right about who currently controls the data. An NBER effort would have to replace the data collection effort as well as the computational effort. It would be a massive undertaking and possibly prohibitively expensive unless targeted to a few key statistics.
I'm convinced that tampering with other economic indicators is exactly where they're going. King MAGA is notorious for cooking the books. Fudging the numbers is one of his specialties, from his golf scores to his tax returns. I have no doubt that MuskRat does the same.
Excuse me.. it makes as much sense as hedonic adjustments to the cpi. This adjustment has transferred billions from the pockets of social security recipients.
This move is another to manipulate statistics to justify tax cuts and reduce benefits. This too will transfer billions.
I don't think the motivation is even as deep as you say. I think it's just, Trump is taking a wrecking ball to govt, this is going to make GDP fall, they can make that look "less bad" by not counting it.
Agreed
They are not playing in any ballpark. They don't play well with others. They are playing in their own sandbox and there is nothing that is too stupid or ruinous for them if they see some delusional benefit. So no expectations are too low and we shouldn't be surprised when they go there.
"It's a trivial idea from people who don't understand economic measurement."
Or... it's from people whose ill-intent they want to obscure from public view. Isn't that, in large part, the whole intent of the destruction we've been witnessing in key departments of our government?
That's not to say that they actually do understand economic measurement. It's just not something they concern themselves with.
Can the Trump administration be sued for playing fast and loose with vital economic data? We know that the Senate and the House (as currently constituted) will default on their duties.
Technically yes. And, as I understand it, numerous Democratic State Attorneys General are doing just that. I believe there are roughly seventy cases going through the courts right now - with many more to come.
And, so far they don't seem to care much for what the courts say. Push is come to shove soon though, and the Constitution will be tested.
Is it possible that it’s because they want to better hide where government spending goes in future? i.e. not infrastructure or roads but cryptocurrency reserves and various other grifts?
Yes, that too.
Corrupting the consumer price index has to be a high priority for these crooks, as tariffs and deportations make prices surge. Social security recipients and TIPS owners for starters are going to be royally screwed by our King.
And we're all going to sit there and take it, pitifully.
I can't agree with your closing sentence. I for one will do everything I can to fight this. I was at the protest in front of Faux News headquarters just this Tuesday.
Attention King MAGA and Skunk Musk - Hands off my Social Security!
When the notion that the US government might “massage” the economic data has come up in the past, I’ve always countered that the people who do this important work are professionals who care first and foremost about accuracy and who see their clientele primarily as users in the private sector. Maintaining their reputations for first-class work would also have been a contributing if not a driving factor. But for the first time I’m not confident of this view anymore, mainly because in the current environment anyone who stands in the way of meddling will be at risk of losing their jobs.
I agree that taking government spending out of the GDP calculation makes no sense. I would only add that, especially insofar as that spending counts as services, it would reflect the right-wing view that those services are worthless if not counterproductive. The main concern I have goes to the integrity of other data sets, such as those underlying the employment reports and the price indexes. Perhaps it is time for the National Bureau of Economic Research to launch a counter offensive by running parallel data collection operations focused on areas where private sources are lacking (the ADP data on employment may help cover that area).
It's a nice idea, but who controls the data? That's the problem.
As for your point about the people doing the work, that's why King MAGA selects only from the Fresh Water/Milton Friedman crowd. Their reputations precisely revolve around being good at BS.
Say what you want about the Fresh Water crowd, I doubt that many of them approve the current situation. And really, what side do you think Milton Friedman would be on at this juncture?
Is the proposal to just redefine what is meant by GDP, or to actually stop tracking the data of what is produced by the public sector? If it was the former, I'd be fine to have different names for different measures (say GDP1, GDP2, etc). If it was the latter, that would of course be crazy.
The problem here is we have no way of knowing. Picture the Orange Turd sticking out his tongue and saying "I'm not gonna tell ya and you can't make me, nya nya na nya nya!"
That's the level to which our government has stooped.
Maybe he just doesn't want what we spend to support him and his little buddies. He is by far the most expensive, most wasteful government official we've ever had. He'd rather his adoring public doesn't see the billions he cost that no other ever has.
That sounds about right. "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"
I think looking for the ulterior motive in what they're proposing in the right mindset. These MFers can never be trusted.
The ‘economist you know in the administration’ could be fired if they did not toe the government line.
And with this Evil Clown in Chief, he could even potentially be charged with some Trumped up "violation" and fed to the new Injustice department for prosecution and a Kangaroo trial.
Clearly the deviations from trend are affected by recessions, but it sure appears that the private share seems to recover well under Democratic Presidents.
You’re absolutely right about who currently controls the data. An NBER effort would have to replace the data collection effort as well as the computational effort. It would be a massive undertaking and possibly prohibitively expensive unless targeted to a few key statistics.
I'm convinced that tampering with other economic indicators is exactly where they're going. King MAGA is notorious for cooking the books. Fudging the numbers is one of his specialties, from his golf scores to his tax returns. I have no doubt that MuskRat does the same.
Could CPI be next on the list?
It makes sense if the purpose is to lie about the state of the economy.
Excuse me.. it makes as much sense as hedonic adjustments to the cpi. This adjustment has transferred billions from the pockets of social security recipients.
This move is another to manipulate statistics to justify tax cuts and reduce benefits. This too will transfer billions.
Both are conservative think tank ideas.