I went out to lunch with my my brother’s mother-in-law today (in a rural area of southern England) and she told me she’d got caught in a heavy traffic queue that was lined up to buy petrol. So this is affecting us already. And according to the BBC and The Guardian, natural gas supplies are also about to be curtailed so that’s going to cause price increases in a lot of areas that many Brits can’t afford. I don’t personally know of anyone who isn’t 100% against this war!
"The Trump admin says they have no plans to tap the SPR, but I’m skeptical of their claim."
I am not skeptical. I will never be skeptical of any claim that the Trump administration doesn't have plans.
Now, if they had claimed to have a well-thought-out plan to bring gas prices down, I would be skeptical, whether or not they claimed tapping the SPR was an element of that plan.
I am so cynical I think Trump might be willing to tolerate the spike in oil and natural gas prices because it benefits his master Putin. On the other hand it will really hurt him with his base so he is caught between those two masters.
I guess it would depend on inventories at the farm retailer level. I would generally expect them to be adequate, ready for spring application. But if this goes on much longer then post-spring refill would be impacted. TBH farm equipment inhales diesel - that would be a bigger problem for farmers I suspect.
Since Saturday, it has jumped about 60 cents (so far) for home heating oil (from $3.60 to $4.20. Almost at the end of the heating season, so not that much impact or demand. Same price that they were gouging during the record cold in early February.
9-year olds have super-clarity, love your example! Would love 9ers commenting on the regime’s wild array of reasons and “ plans” for spending $1B / day on military something-or-other in Middle East.
A very good explanation of how gas prices change. I agree that Iran is a despicable state actor, but initiating hostile actions without a clearly defined end result is very bad both militarily and politically. Iran can not be totally disarmed without an occupation of military forces, and I don't feel that Trump is prepared to do this, and Israel lacks the manpower to do it. At this point, there doesn't appear to be a viable political force capable of assuming responsibility for the running of Iran. This could lead to civil war or a resumption of control by the same forces we are trying to eliminate. Additionally, it is unlikely that anyone in the White has read about or has an understanding of the Shiite religious beliefs. The killing of their leader has been compared to the way Catholics would react if some country killed the Pope. There are over 200 million Shiites in the World, so it is possible that there will be many efforts made to avenge this killing. None of this says whether or not we should have started a war with Iran, but it does question the ability of the White House to see the possible consequences of its actions and make some effort to make a coherent explanation to the American public.
Good assessment. However, GW Bush and Karl rove came up with shi-ite. Islamic scholars say the correct words are Shia (Iranian, others who adhere to that branch of Islam) and Sunni (Saudis, etc.) who adhere to the other branch. This goes back to early Islam, after the Prophet died.
I am reminded of Roman Catholics vs. Protestants, particularly in the 1500s-1800 and Irish until 1990s with the "troubles".
I grew up with a fervently Protestant grandmother, who considered Catholics considered heretical from original Christianity. Interesting times.
Christians killing Christians - doesn't seem very Christ-like to me. Once again, it is the organizations that profit, while the rank-and-file suffer the consequences. As a non-believer, I have always marveled at the way politicians and religious organizations sanctify the use of force against those they call their enemies. Iran has been preparing for this conflict and seems to be willing to pay a very high price to resist Israel and Trump. Israel needs this war to keep Netanyahu from being prosecuted for corruption, and Trump needs the war to distract us from the Epstein files. Neither one cares how many people they kill as long as they stay in power.
Every few miles a gas station with posted prices, a month ago 2.69, to 3.19, gas prices and the Dow Jones, bouncing instead of steady increases… the two numbers Joe and Mary voter see every day … T and the Rs are in trouble…
The usual stock pick at a time like this is Costco or Walmart--people looking for cheaper gas walk in to buy groceries too. This is, I’d note, exactly the kind of cost increase farmers don’t need. First, Trump tariffs destroy their export markets. Then war in Iran drives up diesel and fertilizer costs.
I’ll steer clear of arguments about the merits of the war, whether pro or con. That said, I sure would appreciate insights into whether and how the objectives of Operation Epic Fury differ from those of Operation Roaring Lion. That is, if US missiles, rockets and bombs were targeted exclusively at military and nuclear sites, that would square with the rationale Secretary Rubio offered the other day. And if the compound at which the Ayatollah and forty-odd other Iranian leaders were meeting was obliterated exclusively by Israeli ordinance, that would make Israel the sole owner of a regime change agenda. So, whose bombs landed where, and does Rubio’s (and Hegseth’s) explanation hold water?
I went out to lunch with my my brother’s mother-in-law today (in a rural area of southern England) and she told me she’d got caught in a heavy traffic queue that was lined up to buy petrol. So this is affecting us already. And according to the BBC and The Guardian, natural gas supplies are also about to be curtailed so that’s going to cause price increases in a lot of areas that many Brits can’t afford. I don’t personally know of anyone who isn’t 100% against this war!
"The Trump admin says they have no plans to tap the SPR, but I’m skeptical of their claim."
I am not skeptical. I will never be skeptical of any claim that the Trump administration doesn't have plans.
Now, if they had claimed to have a well-thought-out plan to bring gas prices down, I would be skeptical, whether or not they claimed tapping the SPR was an element of that plan.
I am so cynical I think Trump might be willing to tolerate the spike in oil and natural gas prices because it benefits his master Putin. On the other hand it will really hurt him with his base so he is caught between those two masters.
How big a deal is the shock to the urea market, to US producers in particular?
Not what the rural politeconomy of Kansas thought it was getting?
I guess it would depend on inventories at the farm retailer level. I would generally expect them to be adequate, ready for spring application. But if this goes on much longer then post-spring refill would be impacted. TBH farm equipment inhales diesel - that would be a bigger problem for farmers I suspect.
Is there much cooperative purchasing/risk management in fuels, fertilizer etc? Accessible to producers that vote (not Citizens United "persons")?
I was an ag economist for a fair bit.
Worth charting the gasoline / diesel price ratio. Wars suck up diesel.
Since Saturday, it has jumped about 60 cents (so far) for home heating oil (from $3.60 to $4.20. Almost at the end of the heating season, so not that much impact or demand. Same price that they were gouging during the record cold in early February.
" A more colorful description of the phenomenon is 'rockets and feathers.'"
Sort of the opposite of how it works with the stock market, where the market climbs slowly, but crashes in an instant.
9-year olds have super-clarity, love your example! Would love 9ers commenting on the regime’s wild array of reasons and “ plans” for spending $1B / day on military something-or-other in Middle East.
A very good explanation of how gas prices change. I agree that Iran is a despicable state actor, but initiating hostile actions without a clearly defined end result is very bad both militarily and politically. Iran can not be totally disarmed without an occupation of military forces, and I don't feel that Trump is prepared to do this, and Israel lacks the manpower to do it. At this point, there doesn't appear to be a viable political force capable of assuming responsibility for the running of Iran. This could lead to civil war or a resumption of control by the same forces we are trying to eliminate. Additionally, it is unlikely that anyone in the White has read about or has an understanding of the Shiite religious beliefs. The killing of their leader has been compared to the way Catholics would react if some country killed the Pope. There are over 200 million Shiites in the World, so it is possible that there will be many efforts made to avenge this killing. None of this says whether or not we should have started a war with Iran, but it does question the ability of the White House to see the possible consequences of its actions and make some effort to make a coherent explanation to the American public.
Good assessment. However, GW Bush and Karl rove came up with shi-ite. Islamic scholars say the correct words are Shia (Iranian, others who adhere to that branch of Islam) and Sunni (Saudis, etc.) who adhere to the other branch. This goes back to early Islam, after the Prophet died.
I am reminded of Roman Catholics vs. Protestants, particularly in the 1500s-1800 and Irish until 1990s with the "troubles".
I grew up with a fervently Protestant grandmother, who considered Catholics considered heretical from original Christianity. Interesting times.
Christians killing Christians - doesn't seem very Christ-like to me. Once again, it is the organizations that profit, while the rank-and-file suffer the consequences. As a non-believer, I have always marveled at the way politicians and religious organizations sanctify the use of force against those they call their enemies. Iran has been preparing for this conflict and seems to be willing to pay a very high price to resist Israel and Trump. Israel needs this war to keep Netanyahu from being prosecuted for corruption, and Trump needs the war to distract us from the Epstein files. Neither one cares how many people they kill as long as they stay in power.
Agreed. I'd as soon send them and Putin to prison now.
Every few miles a gas station with posted prices, a month ago 2.69, to 3.19, gas prices and the Dow Jones, bouncing instead of steady increases… the two numbers Joe and Mary voter see every day … T and the Rs are in trouble…
T and Rs, like T. rex was in trouble. Yuk a yuk yuk yuk.
About time.
The usual stock pick at a time like this is Costco or Walmart--people looking for cheaper gas walk in to buy groceries too. This is, I’d note, exactly the kind of cost increase farmers don’t need. First, Trump tariffs destroy their export markets. Then war in Iran drives up diesel and fertilizer costs.
I’ll steer clear of arguments about the merits of the war, whether pro or con. That said, I sure would appreciate insights into whether and how the objectives of Operation Epic Fury differ from those of Operation Roaring Lion. That is, if US missiles, rockets and bombs were targeted exclusively at military and nuclear sites, that would square with the rationale Secretary Rubio offered the other day. And if the compound at which the Ayatollah and forty-odd other Iranian leaders were meeting was obliterated exclusively by Israeli ordinance, that would make Israel the sole owner of a regime change agenda. So, whose bombs landed where, and does Rubio’s (and Hegseth’s) explanation hold water?
One could say stop complaining. We in the PNW were glad to get down to $3.65/gallon ten days ago. It's at $3.95 for regular gas at Costco.