Thank you for your summaries of key event and data. Your effort to provide objective interpretation of the data is also appreciated - and not an easy task.
Love the “blah blah, woof woof” quote. Jimi Hendrix (I think) first said it on Dick Cavett’s show sometime back in the 70’s. Way more descriptive (and dismissive) of BS than anything else. Thanks as always for your clear, honest and accessible economic analysis, which I’ve been following since your first blog at CBPP. I particularly appreciated the quote from Politico on the correlation between immigration and GDP.
One of my grave concerns is the Trump admin's ability to function during a financial crisis - and there will be one.
Powell at best stays for less than a year, to be replaced by a stooge. Bessent is at Treasury. Our diplomatic corps is in tatters. We are imposing tariffs.
The 2008 crisis was a disaster, BUT it could been so much worse as Tim Geithner describes in the video below.
"You can call this a thermostatic reaction to Trumpian outrages, and I’d firmly agree. (Meaning public opinion often reacts like a thermostat, bringing the temperature back to where it was previously set when something makes the room too hot or cold.)"
The MAGA crowd, and this gets worse the higher up you go, doesn't seem capable of anticipating. A thermostat reacts after the fact that it is now too hot or too cold. Interestingly the old mercury thermostats had what were called "anticipators" to try and correct this. They worked by making the thermostat think it was a little warmer than the air temperature really was that then shut off when the heat turned on. This worked to prevent wild cycling. But it doesn't really anticipate what the temperature is going to be given the current and predicted conditions. Just like the thermostat, MAGA doesn't have a clue about what is going to happen. But they do have very good senses for what's happening right now to them, like the thermostat. There is one big difference, thermostats don't watch Fox News to figure out the temperature in the room! or actually some other room they know nothing about. Even with Fox News it seems they can still sense their own temperature. Not sure how to teach the thermostat how to anticipate what's going to happen, but that's the problem.
Krugman made an excellent point today: that immigrants are most unpopular where there are fewest of them. Communities that are highly integrated are also quite tolerant.
My only shred of hope here is that the courts continue to uphold the truth—that Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional and must be stopped immediately. When it comes to Fed independence, I foresee immense TACO-ing and *maybe* some actual pushback by Congress?? The maybe is doing a lot of work here admittedly.
This post makes it sound like Biden had nothing to do with the strong recovery of the US economy post-pandemic. Considering the US economy bounced back far better than other advanced economies due to the policies of the Biden administration, you should have pointed out that that virtuous cycle we have been living off was created in large part by Biden’s policies.
It infuriates me that so many Americans went to the polls having no idea that the post-pandemic US economy was, as the Economist put it, “the envy of the world” and was leaving other rich countries “in its dust”.
For decades the public has had the wildly mistaken idea that Republicans are better for both the economy and for getting the debt under control. It’s up to all of us to debunk those impressions any chances we get.
Prez Trump just escalated a situation that has been smoldering for a long time already, like a swamp fire. Many issues now playing are the result of the "anti-immigrant" legislation of 1996 - that Democrats voted for too. It forced migrants intent on coming here to either trek through the deserts, or swim the river. Hundreds (maybe even thousands) died from dehydration or by drowning.
@Jared Bernstein , is it really possible for the economy to tip into recession when the Federal government is running a 6-7% deficit or do you think the tariffs (which are a consumption tax) actually amount to austerity and a significantly lower annual deficit? It seems one or the other narrative has to give.
My worry — as with many others who follow US economic trendlines — is the threat to credibility of numbers release by various govt. agencies...not just the crude cooking-the-books type of data manipulation, but the massive gutting of the data-gathering infrastructure, giving imperfect or "guesstimate" figures for want of timely availability of usually relied-upon AND reliable data.
I for one believe that monthly inflation numbers going forward will appear inordinately low relative to what private-sector economists are finding, in order to heavily pressure the Fed — and Jay Powell — to sharply and more quickly lower interest rates despite the underlying REAL economic data contraindicating such moves. A typical tRump ploy, and carried out by his stooges at the agencies.
I’d like to hold hope of Senate Republicans putting good of country above good of Trump, but even if that happens, possibly for the first nominee, I can’t see the good of country coalition being sustained long enough to get an independent, and qualified nominee from Trump.
Thank you for your summaries of key event and data. Your effort to provide objective interpretation of the data is also appreciated - and not an easy task.
These columns are wonderfully incisive and intelligible. Thank you so much!
Love the “blah blah, woof woof” quote. Jimi Hendrix (I think) first said it on Dick Cavett’s show sometime back in the 70’s. Way more descriptive (and dismissive) of BS than anything else. Thanks as always for your clear, honest and accessible economic analysis, which I’ve been following since your first blog at CBPP. I particularly appreciated the quote from Politico on the correlation between immigration and GDP.
Jimi Hendrix didn't see much of the 1970s; he died in September of 1970.
Right you are, shoulda looked it up before trusting to my frequently faulty memory. Maybe this: https://www.answers.com/comics/What_does_%27Blah_Blah_Woof_Woof%27_mean
But I do remember seeing him on Dick Cavett early on, when he had just burst on the scene.
One of my grave concerns is the Trump admin's ability to function during a financial crisis - and there will be one.
Powell at best stays for less than a year, to be replaced by a stooge. Bessent is at Treasury. Our diplomatic corps is in tatters. We are imposing tariffs.
The 2008 crisis was a disaster, BUT it could been so much worse as Tim Geithner describes in the video below.
https://youtu.be/0yuKLHG0dGs?si=uXPukPLGiF_LrCfM
That disaster could have been prevented if those at the top had done their job properly: minding the store.
"You can call this a thermostatic reaction to Trumpian outrages, and I’d firmly agree. (Meaning public opinion often reacts like a thermostat, bringing the temperature back to where it was previously set when something makes the room too hot or cold.)"
The MAGA crowd, and this gets worse the higher up you go, doesn't seem capable of anticipating. A thermostat reacts after the fact that it is now too hot or too cold. Interestingly the old mercury thermostats had what were called "anticipators" to try and correct this. They worked by making the thermostat think it was a little warmer than the air temperature really was that then shut off when the heat turned on. This worked to prevent wild cycling. But it doesn't really anticipate what the temperature is going to be given the current and predicted conditions. Just like the thermostat, MAGA doesn't have a clue about what is going to happen. But they do have very good senses for what's happening right now to them, like the thermostat. There is one big difference, thermostats don't watch Fox News to figure out the temperature in the room! or actually some other room they know nothing about. Even with Fox News it seems they can still sense their own temperature. Not sure how to teach the thermostat how to anticipate what's going to happen, but that's the problem.
Krugman made an excellent point today: that immigrants are most unpopular where there are fewest of them. Communities that are highly integrated are also quite tolerant.
My only shred of hope here is that the courts continue to uphold the truth—that Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional and must be stopped immediately. When it comes to Fed independence, I foresee immense TACO-ing and *maybe* some actual pushback by Congress?? The maybe is doing a lot of work here admittedly.
Excellent article.
This post makes it sound like Biden had nothing to do with the strong recovery of the US economy post-pandemic. Considering the US economy bounced back far better than other advanced economies due to the policies of the Biden administration, you should have pointed out that that virtuous cycle we have been living off was created in large part by Biden’s policies.
It infuriates me that so many Americans went to the polls having no idea that the post-pandemic US economy was, as the Economist put it, “the envy of the world” and was leaving other rich countries “in its dust”.
For decades the public has had the wildly mistaken idea that Republicans are better for both the economy and for getting the debt under control. It’s up to all of us to debunk those impressions any chances we get.
Prez Trump just escalated a situation that has been smoldering for a long time already, like a swamp fire. Many issues now playing are the result of the "anti-immigrant" legislation of 1996 - that Democrats voted for too. It forced migrants intent on coming here to either trek through the deserts, or swim the river. Hundreds (maybe even thousands) died from dehydration or by drowning.
@Jared Bernstein , is it really possible for the economy to tip into recession when the Federal government is running a 6-7% deficit or do you think the tariffs (which are a consumption tax) actually amount to austerity and a significantly lower annual deficit? It seems one or the other narrative has to give.
My worry — as with many others who follow US economic trendlines — is the threat to credibility of numbers release by various govt. agencies...not just the crude cooking-the-books type of data manipulation, but the massive gutting of the data-gathering infrastructure, giving imperfect or "guesstimate" figures for want of timely availability of usually relied-upon AND reliable data.
I for one believe that monthly inflation numbers going forward will appear inordinately low relative to what private-sector economists are finding, in order to heavily pressure the Fed — and Jay Powell — to sharply and more quickly lower interest rates despite the underlying REAL economic data contraindicating such moves. A typical tRump ploy, and carried out by his stooges at the agencies.
Tillis will still be in the Senate in May 2026, and maybe a few Republicans will take the good of the country seriously enough to 86 Trump's Fed pick.
I’d like to hold hope of Senate Republicans putting good of country above good of Trump, but even if that happens, possibly for the first nominee, I can’t see the good of country coalition being sustained long enough to get an independent, and qualified nominee from Trump.
It will be interesting to continually monitor the tariff effects on the CPI.