Even if Powell doesn't get fired, his term is up in May, 2026. The big question is whether the Senate will confirm a lackey as a replacement. The Senate has been subservient, but they care a lot about money, and a bad Fed chair would hurt all of them financially. I know it's naive to hope for spine from the Senate. I'm an optimist.
Considering Hassett has been wrong about everything this century but still enjoys a very good reputation I would say Trump will get a lackey…because Trump has differentiated his foreign policy from Bush Republicans but his domestic policy is simply Bush 4.0 and most Republican senators are Bush Republicans.
There are plenty of historical examples of what happens when a countries' leader takes on the role of determining central bank interest rates, and none of them are good. Inflation, debasement of the national currency, capital flight and economic collapse, to name just a few.
Pulling back from firing Powell is only a temporary reprieve. If 47 is actually able to get his candidate into the chair's seat, plus add a few more loyalists to the Fed board, we will likely be in serious financial trouble very soon.
Trump was not liked or trusted by the NYC Real Estate community. They are not angels but they are not unscrupolus or as devious or as incompetent as Trump.
If he's following the Orban, Erdogan, etc playbook, the idea would be to pursue policies that create a short term economic bump that causes severe pain later, but by then it doesn't matter because you've already entrenched yourself and eliminated the opposition.
The Supreme Court has already signaled it would not approve the president’s firing of the Fed chair. So Trump probably won’t risk losing on this issue and likely already would have fired Powell, but for that signal. They say hard cases make bad law, but an independent Fed gives every president a responsibility escape device when the economy turns sour-just blame the Fed. So theoretically I’d prefer the Fed answerable to the president, even though Trump is a moron.
There are countless ways to describe Trump and none of the honest ones include anything remotely positive. But there is one short sentence that goes a long way toward adequately describing Trump's basic "presidenting." That sentence doesn't describe Trump's fascism, his bigotry, his sexual predation, or his criminality. But as a way to justify never voting for him for any office, it does the job. Here is that sentence:
We should focus more on the regulatory role of the Fed, not just monetary policy. Powell has been terrible as a regulator, but, presumably, his replacement would be even worse.
Whoops. They say that firing Powell or talking about it will tank our economy faster than deporting all undocumented people. Plus, tariffs are sales taxes.
I'm sensing that "the markets" are now pricing in a Powell sacking, trading a former horror for the promise of (substantially?) lower interest rates from a more complaisant Fed to continue driving stocks higher, reviving the M&A environment, and in general promoting more cheap money. Ignored of course is that these low rates are completely incompatible with financing the burgeoning national debt, where large international investors are demanding higher rates as risk premiums.
Essentially, radical short-termism is the mindset currently, until soaring, tariff-driven inflation, or a "black swan" event capsizes the applecart.
In spite of all the charts and graphs the stock markets hasn’t cratered, interest rates pretty stable, we ‘re all waiting for the recession… and it appears to have lost its way, the fed chairman is a dead man walking and yes the Senate is somnambulant and will appoint Pinocchio, will the market crash, the heavens open, or will we stagger along as we tiptoe to autocracy?
Curious about how powerful the Chair is on the Fed. Would DJT need to do an RFK and fire the whole Fed board to get his way, or does the Chair really set a lot of the tone?
I think Greenspan and Bernanke were powerful…and reading about Greenspan and 1992 I believe under Bush 2 he became a partisan hack. Bernanke was a partisan hack too which is how we ended with the Global Financial Crisis because the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts were too big for the dysfunctional Bush economy to absorb.
"It’s all just an endless morass of terrible presidenting."
Amen...
I don't think Trump often intends to distract, but this time I think it's very intentional.
"Pay attention to Powell, not Epstein ! ”
Ordinarily, he's just a very distracting human being.
He’s a narcissist…so everything he says is designed to keep the focus on himself.
Even if Powell doesn't get fired, his term is up in May, 2026. The big question is whether the Senate will confirm a lackey as a replacement. The Senate has been subservient, but they care a lot about money, and a bad Fed chair would hurt all of them financially. I know it's naive to hope for spine from the Senate. I'm an optimist.
Considering Hassett has been wrong about everything this century but still enjoys a very good reputation I would say Trump will get a lackey…because Trump has differentiated his foreign policy from Bush Republicans but his domestic policy is simply Bush 4.0 and most Republican senators are Bush Republicans.
There are plenty of historical examples of what happens when a countries' leader takes on the role of determining central bank interest rates, and none of them are good. Inflation, debasement of the national currency, capital flight and economic collapse, to name just a few.
Pulling back from firing Powell is only a temporary reprieve. If 47 is actually able to get his candidate into the chair's seat, plus add a few more loyalists to the Fed board, we will likely be in serious financial trouble very soon.
It wouldn’t be the first time…we will just need to find another Obama to bail us out.
Trump was not liked or trusted by the NYC Real Estate community. They are not angels but they are not unscrupolus or as devious or as incompetent as Trump.
If he's following the Orban, Erdogan, etc playbook, the idea would be to pursue policies that create a short term economic bump that causes severe pain later, but by then it doesn't matter because you've already entrenched yourself and eliminated the opposition.
The president is not keeping opponents off-balance, but the country he is supposed to be leasing and the economy he is supposed to be stewarding.
The Supreme Court has already signaled it would not approve the president’s firing of the Fed chair. So Trump probably won’t risk losing on this issue and likely already would have fired Powell, but for that signal. They say hard cases make bad law, but an independent Fed gives every president a responsibility escape device when the economy turns sour-just blame the Fed. So theoretically I’d prefer the Fed answerable to the president, even though Trump is a moron.
PPI doesn't include taxes (in which class tariffs are included) or imports.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.tn.htm
There are countless ways to describe Trump and none of the honest ones include anything remotely positive. But there is one short sentence that goes a long way toward adequately describing Trump's basic "presidenting." That sentence doesn't describe Trump's fascism, his bigotry, his sexual predation, or his criminality. But as a way to justify never voting for him for any office, it does the job. Here is that sentence:
Trump is an idiot.
We should focus more on the regulatory role of the Fed, not just monetary policy. Powell has been terrible as a regulator, but, presumably, his replacement would be even worse.
Here’s hoping that every time Democrats opens their mouth
Whoops. They say that firing Powell or talking about it will tank our economy faster than deporting all undocumented people. Plus, tariffs are sales taxes.
I'm sensing that "the markets" are now pricing in a Powell sacking, trading a former horror for the promise of (substantially?) lower interest rates from a more complaisant Fed to continue driving stocks higher, reviving the M&A environment, and in general promoting more cheap money. Ignored of course is that these low rates are completely incompatible with financing the burgeoning national debt, where large international investors are demanding higher rates as risk premiums.
Essentially, radical short-termism is the mindset currently, until soaring, tariff-driven inflation, or a "black swan" event capsizes the applecart.
In spite of all the charts and graphs the stock markets hasn’t cratered, interest rates pretty stable, we ‘re all waiting for the recession… and it appears to have lost its way, the fed chairman is a dead man walking and yes the Senate is somnambulant and will appoint Pinocchio, will the market crash, the heavens open, or will we stagger along as we tiptoe to autocracy?
Not a "ridiculous question" at all. I'm preparing myself for the Fed to be ruined like the DOJ.
Curious about how powerful the Chair is on the Fed. Would DJT need to do an RFK and fire the whole Fed board to get his way, or does the Chair really set a lot of the tone?
I think Greenspan and Bernanke were powerful…and reading about Greenspan and 1992 I believe under Bush 2 he became a partisan hack. Bernanke was a partisan hack too which is how we ended with the Global Financial Crisis because the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts were too big for the dysfunctional Bush economy to absorb.