I've been a little worried that democrats are fighting the last battle. Sure MAGA was able to weaponize the pandemic spike in inflation against democrats to win in 24 election. But my opinion is that if not inflation MAGA would have just found something else to club democrats with (trans). At least MAGA waited until after the pandemic inflation spike to pounce. Democrats, as Trump took office decided to make the argument that Donald Trump won the election by promising to lower prices on day one and tariffs will bring inflation. Tariffs may bring inflation but could it also not result in a global slow down. Tariffs raise prices on imports and in many cases these imports have no domestic suppliers or serve as necessary components for domestic manufacturers. This raises prices if demand stays steady. But consumers could just decide not to buy the more expensive stuff, (Donny 2 dolls). In that case slow growth and job loss has begger impact than inflation.
Bernstein's analysis is great about the numbers except for one guesstimate number he left out. We likely will see over a million or more undocumented workers leave the U.S. this year. Loss of undocumented workers and their families will likely increase inflation, lower GDP, and likely improve wage growth. But will it increase or decrease measured unemployment? Thoughts Dr. Bernstein?
Agree with the dynamics in your "Loss of undoc..." sentence. Just not sure how big this impact is now or will be later. Numerous data-driven analyses aren't picking up much yet, but it's very much a work in progress. My strong prior, though, is that the Trump/Miller attack will show up in reduced labor force growth.
Agree with pretty much everything (as usual), but on "job creation is well ahead of breakeven", that would be less clearly true, or perhaps even not true, if we again get downward revisions to recent months when the next payroll numbers come out, as has been the pattern in recent releases.
The numbers also may look good because they don’t include first time job seekers. I am hearing that recent college graduates are having trouble finding jobs. This is especially true in the sciences where I hear from friends and family that job offers have been rescinded. Although I don’t know the true figures, I am hearing more generally that recent graduates are not graduating with jobs for example only 30% who graduated with Masters in Management from Duke this spring had job offers.
I've been a little worried that democrats are fighting the last battle. Sure MAGA was able to weaponize the pandemic spike in inflation against democrats to win in 24 election. But my opinion is that if not inflation MAGA would have just found something else to club democrats with (trans). At least MAGA waited until after the pandemic inflation spike to pounce. Democrats, as Trump took office decided to make the argument that Donald Trump won the election by promising to lower prices on day one and tariffs will bring inflation. Tariffs may bring inflation but could it also not result in a global slow down. Tariffs raise prices on imports and in many cases these imports have no domestic suppliers or serve as necessary components for domestic manufacturers. This raises prices if demand stays steady. But consumers could just decide not to buy the more expensive stuff, (Donny 2 dolls). In that case slow growth and job loss has begger impact than inflation.
Bernstein's analysis is great about the numbers except for one guesstimate number he left out. We likely will see over a million or more undocumented workers leave the U.S. this year. Loss of undocumented workers and their families will likely increase inflation, lower GDP, and likely improve wage growth. But will it increase or decrease measured unemployment? Thoughts Dr. Bernstein?
Agree with the dynamics in your "Loss of undoc..." sentence. Just not sure how big this impact is now or will be later. Numerous data-driven analyses aren't picking up much yet, but it's very much a work in progress. My strong prior, though, is that the Trump/Miller attack will show up in reduced labor force growth.
EG: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/us-migrant-workforce-trump-deportation-push-ce3dd0f5?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAg6x5at2RDizT717e3t7qlkli70Bsso8HhcGqlQq7_KB6OXxzL2F2Gd06QzdJc%3D&gaa_ts=684c6698&gaa_sig=VitHmOLli9O-PIovKkGRHop9GWfvt4_DBNQAZawgFYnopibulDoswKlTYYSgDT87svsw4ul-zzjdWTeK9AUVGw%3D%3D
Agree with pretty much everything (as usual), but on "job creation is well ahead of breakeven", that would be less clearly true, or perhaps even not true, if we again get downward revisions to recent months when the next payroll numbers come out, as has been the pattern in recent releases.
Good point.
The numbers also may look good because they don’t include first time job seekers. I am hearing that recent college graduates are having trouble finding jobs. This is especially true in the sciences where I hear from friends and family that job offers have been rescinded. Although I don’t know the true figures, I am hearing more generally that recent graduates are not graduating with jobs for example only 30% who graduated with Masters in Management from Duke this spring had job offers.
And now we have the Israeli strikes in Iran. That complicates things too. Watch out with oil and gas prices.