There are a few soft spots under the hood in the June job market, but the toplines came in better than expected, with solid payroll gains, lower unemployment, and higher pay.
Public school employment is always hard to measure in June and September as contracts activate (September) and terminate (June). The last day of school, often sometime in the middle of June, falls unfortunately very near the establishment survey measurement week. This year local public school employment, for example, seemed to have decreased by 300k not seasonally adjusted, but reported a modest 23k increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. Really, it's hard to know if local public education is trending up or down.
Could it be that lower illegal immigration has led to more official hiring and that if immigration had been unchanged the job report would have been weaker?
In 295 days the USA went from immigrants are eating cats and dogs to joking about feeding immigrants to alligators.
A small nit on your comments.
Public school employment is always hard to measure in June and September as contracts activate (September) and terminate (June). The last day of school, often sometime in the middle of June, falls unfortunately very near the establishment survey measurement week. This year local public school employment, for example, seemed to have decreased by 300k not seasonally adjusted, but reported a modest 23k increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. Really, it's hard to know if local public education is trending up or down.
Funny how ADP’s data conflicts with the 147k number..
Could it be that lower illegal immigration has led to more official hiring and that if immigration had been unchanged the job report would have been weaker?
None of the data is factual
Manipulated and false
All the data gate keepers have been laid off
How can federal employment be up with the DOGE firings?
All of it is a rouse
Hoe many of those 16 k are ICE soldiers?
If you were in the Obama/Biden administration would these numbers concerning? Does your anti Trump boss impact your predictions?