The number of small businesses that had already been struggling with the Canada and Mexico tariffs, which will not be coming down soon.
From the FT: "The tariff rebate in the EO allows carmakers that assemble their vehicles in the US to reclaim up to 3.75 per cent (for 2025)... It will drop to 2.5 per cent from May 1 2026 and be phased out completely on April 30 2027."
"But the question on everyone’s mind today will likely be: does this report provide confirmation that Trump’s economic agenda is responsible for tanking the economy? The answer is not yet, but there are signs that point in that unfortunate direction."
To praphrase John Kenneth Galbraith - Never blame the vagaries of statistics while Trump is in the White House!
Global investors, irritated by uncertainty, will adjust their positioning, but they won’t abandon the dollar. They’ll search for alternatives. The US will continue to benefit from an extraordinary privilege, though one that will erode over time, until it eventually fades. Even the Roman Empire didn’t collapse with a bang; its decline was a slow, inevitable process. The Romans themselves hardly noticed it.
Have the folks compiling this critical information been affected by the mindless “doge” budget cuts?
The number of small businesses that had already been struggling with the Canada and Mexico tariffs, which will not be coming down soon.
From the FT: "The tariff rebate in the EO allows carmakers that assemble their vehicles in the US to reclaim up to 3.75 per cent (for 2025)... It will drop to 2.5 per cent from May 1 2026 and be phased out completely on April 30 2027."
**tariffs are here to stay 👀 https://www.ft.com/content/3177101b-a6dc-4c7d-96ca-15b11356e8d8?shareType=nongift
And now small and mid sized businesses dependent on China for production will be slammed.
The US economy is pretty leveraged.
https://www.ft.com/content/ae8277b7-f8fb-4262-811d-ed8f3d9c70fe?shareType=nongift
"But the question on everyone’s mind today will likely be: does this report provide confirmation that Trump’s economic agenda is responsible for tanking the economy? The answer is not yet, but there are signs that point in that unfortunate direction."
To praphrase John Kenneth Galbraith - Never blame the vagaries of statistics while Trump is in the White House!
I wonder how the Sahm Rule will compare to tracking GDP or waiting for the NBER for determining if we're in a recession.
Prices, unemployment and wage growth might be at least as important as whether we're technically in a recession or not.
Did you see the Dallas Fed paper on the harm from cutting funding for basic research? https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/papers/2023/wp2305r2.pdf
Global investors, irritated by uncertainty, will adjust their positioning, but they won’t abandon the dollar. They’ll search for alternatives. The US will continue to benefit from an extraordinary privilege, though one that will erode over time, until it eventually fades. Even the Roman Empire didn’t collapse with a bang; its decline was a slow, inevitable process. The Romans themselves hardly noticed it.
3rd paragraph after table
Fixed--thnx.
(Unless such typos are my version of Taylor's Easter Eggs...)
Now that it’s fixed, should I delete my comment?