Many great comments and suggestions here! I've been thinking about checking out Britbox and see numerous plugs for Scandinavian TV. Will go try some right now!
Great and fair analysis. I'm no economist, but I know your knowledge/advice had a lot to do with economic successes of the Biden years. Paul Krugman has rightly pointed out your policies were the most progressive policies since FDR's New Deal designed to address some of tbe main complaints of Trump voters. Yes, it is right for Democrats to acknowldedge their role in allowing the negative effects of free trade and globalization without compensation for many lost jobs.
But globalization has also brought good. For instance, I am working in the tea industry (and am a tea nerd). The tariffs are going to hurt our business in a big way--tea (as well as coffee and some wines) will never be grown/processed on any quality scale in the US--it is senseless to tariff it. That goes for many other items which we will either no longer be able to get or not get at all--and the prices of what we can get will increase to the point of putting many out of business.
I've been attending the symphony
more (Brahms Requiem is a favorite--I recently attended a performance of Brahms Symphony #4, also a favorite).
Thank you, sir, for your service. You and President Biden did a marvelous job. It's so tragic that so many didn't appreciate it--I think a communication failure of the Administration AND that of mainstream media.
" .... it invariably involves backfilling your own favorite version of what Trump’s up to, which, in turn, has little connection to what he’s actually up to, which, in turn, changes every hour."
Thanks for making that point. Focusing on any one of Trump's failings always falls short of the damage he is about to do. If his mission were to discourage the best and the brightest in America, flout laws and the Constitution, leave the American economy badly damaged, and alienate America's proven friends and allies, he couldn't have done a better job in three months.
I have looked all over for the data for HOW MANY American small businesses (not the Walmarts) import goods from Asia. Watched a great Amanpour interview with (1) a small Vietnamese coffee shop and direct sale (2) small fine clothing business owner and that this has potential of putting them out of business. Just the sheer amount of $ they do not have runway for to get their product off the container ships. They cannot buy Vietnamese beans here and the garment industry is at retirement age.
How many businesses in US require components or all their product from abroad because the price point is critical to survival?
I listen to these auto folks and it makes me never want to buy an American made car. The livelihoods of millions of other Americans they are willing to destroy. Trump could have used a scalpel, but he wanted to feed his savior complex.
Trump and company want to destroy. Remember the tech model that Elon seems to live by, “Move fast and break things”. Recall what Trump told his followers during the campaign, “I will be your revenge”.
Basically Trump and company have goals that are not compatible with having democratic Republic. They want an oligarchy. However, within their elite circles, they disagree regarding which set of oligarchs should be in charge. Musk and fellow Right Wing tech billionaires think it should be them. The wealthy Republican donor class, who probably champion Scott Bessent, believe that they’re the ones who should rule.
Both sets of oligarchs are in agreement that our existing federal government should be bludgeoned and devastated regardless of any negative consequences. Their immediate goal is to be able to claim that they’ve saved enough money to justify Trump’s Big Beautiful tax cuts which will primarily benefit the wealthy. Their second objective is to privatize as much of our government as they can. Again, the goal is to profit the well connected. Think of the opportunities for well connected insiders to make money from outsourcing various government functions.
I'm Joe Biden's biggest fan and yours too Jared but let me respectfully weigh in. When it comes to what Biden/Harris could have done better the answer is move faster with more confidence. Intel should have been given more CHIPS money quicker and inevitable market undersupply during fab build and subsequent oversupply should have been smoothed out with government intervention. The idea of "silicon heartland" was just the medicine the "rust belt" needed. But everyone talks about helping the left behind from lost factory jobs but then fails when they have a chance to do something about it. Just tell Intel to build the fab in Ohio and gov will help if needed to get demand started. Give to South Korea and Taiwan(China) if you must but it is ok to prioritize an American company with American engineers when it comes to investing with American tax payer dollars. There are other examples such as EV batteries in Lorsdtown Ohio and Michigan. Move faster and help with demand if need be. Don't just start a factory when hype is high and then let it be delayed when hype dissipates. At the time it was nice that more money went to red states proving the Joe Biden was indeed a President for all Americans. Yet, now all Americans have lost democracy. In retrospect, the Intel fab and others should have been built in Pennsylvania, a state you had a prayer of winning, unlike Ohio (even Sherrod Brown lost). When it comes to Nippon, long before Nippon made a bid $1 more than Cliffs, the Cliffs and USX deal should have been pushed through in order to create a top 10 American steel company. Concerns from auto companies about a domestic monopoly for auto steel could have been addressed by the government with threats to open up market to foreign competitors if Cliffs/USX tried to charge monopoly prices to US auto makers. Both Joe and Donald were smart enough politicians were smart enough to know that allowing a Japanese company buy United States Steel when the deal was opposed by United Steel Workers union was political poison. Joe waiting until after the election was "kissing you sister". He got no political benefit and inaction opened the field for Trump to demagogue the issue. USX+Cliffs or USX+Nippon, one or the other pick a side and make it happen and defend it. Common thread, move faster, have confidence in the policy, and don't be afraid to gain a political advantage. That is what could have helped Bidenomics be even better than it was. Bidenomics is still the best thing that happened to US economy since FDR.
I am a physical scientist. Free trade is always good, except for critical national security needs. Tariffs are huge entropic losses for the economy, and an entropic loss is never recovered. The mathematical, fact based, economic papers, about the loss of jobs in the Rust Belt, demonstrate 0% to 20% impact of free trade to Rust Belt job losses. Sharod Brown criticizes the companies in the Rust Belt that moved production to the South. Any competent CEO would move production to lower labor cost, non-unionized Southern states, which have better access to ports and shorter transport distances than the Rust Belt. US manufacturing employment grew after NAFTA was signed. US manufacturing was topologically build upon relatively simple products that could be built in "isolated" Rust Belt (small) cities and towns with just rail, or rail and barge support. Today the US manufactures more in real terms than any time in history. But US manufacturing has moved up the food chain. But for the most part it is not big manufacturers, it is smaller, often single owner businesses, who make high value added products using a wide range of inputs. Denver, where I live, is a classic case. We do have some big manufacturing companies, e.g. Lockeed Martin and Ball Aerospace, but most is much smaller. However all rely on a large metro area with high education levels and access to both DIA (3rd busiest airport in the US) and a number of smaller regional airports, two of which have been expanded in recent years to bring in larger cargo planes, as well as being a major freight rail hub, and at the intersection of two interstates (I70, I25). Manufacturing in the US has moved forward with technology and it depends on having what Denver has, a highly educated workforce and good access to the intermediate goods needed to manufacture new higher value goods. The Rust Belt would have collapsed under any rational analysis, with or without China.
Racism and misogyny dominated the Harris/Trump election, polling does ask are you a racist, or simply can never vote for a woman, Trump 45% approval rating is higher than Trump 1, as inflation spikes and the dollar nose dives in value the next Executive Order will be to endorse the Protocols of the Elders of Zion
I absolutely love music, etc., as an antidote to the White House horror show. In 2016, I created an endless playlist of classical music (German Requiem is a favorite). But I have put Ragtime in my playlist since it requires a physical response.
"And you can’t really have a recession without higher layoffs (third figure)."
But what if say 2 million undocumented workers either self deport or are deported and the majority of them were working for cash off the books? Are estimates of workers paid off the books folded into any official labor market data?
Suggestions for an alternative path from your mentions in streaming content, with quality of writing and acting, look to several series produced by the BBC, Canadian Broadcasting, Australian/ NSW, etc.
A multi-talented musical and poetic artist receiving mention across many platforms, genres whom I enjoy interspersed with my favorite classicals, is Jon Batiste...
Thanks for your insights from the non - economist perspective!
Please forgive the criticism, it is meant constructively. But IMO, a big part of what you did wrong was in not taking loud and proud credit for the many phenomenal, sweeping, effective things the Biden admin and you as an essential part of it did right. Getting credit for astonishing accomplishments under near impossible circumstances was always an uphill battle with a hostile media (IMO) but it was make or break battle that needed to be fought.
What about non-labor stats? Here in Australia, the rate of petty-crime like stealing from superrmarkets has gone up, the usage of food banks is way up as low-income families struggle with accomodation affordability vs food on table. Remittances to MX/LatAm, the undocumented workers might not be reflected in official stats but their savinga could be monitored via aggregate FX? There's also food monopolies (cough eggs https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/fowl-play-how-chicken-genetics-barons), if they are passing on price increases compared with say WalMart who can squeeze suppliers it might be a weak signal that recession has started rather than being masked by inventory stockpiling (pull ahead of the tariff tax wedge).
Many great comments and suggestions here! I've been thinking about checking out Britbox and see numerous plugs for Scandinavian TV. Will go try some right now!
Great and fair analysis. I'm no economist, but I know your knowledge/advice had a lot to do with economic successes of the Biden years. Paul Krugman has rightly pointed out your policies were the most progressive policies since FDR's New Deal designed to address some of tbe main complaints of Trump voters. Yes, it is right for Democrats to acknowldedge their role in allowing the negative effects of free trade and globalization without compensation for many lost jobs.
But globalization has also brought good. For instance, I am working in the tea industry (and am a tea nerd). The tariffs are going to hurt our business in a big way--tea (as well as coffee and some wines) will never be grown/processed on any quality scale in the US--it is senseless to tariff it. That goes for many other items which we will either no longer be able to get or not get at all--and the prices of what we can get will increase to the point of putting many out of business.
I've been attending the symphony
more (Brahms Requiem is a favorite--I recently attended a performance of Brahms Symphony #4, also a favorite).
Thank you, sir, for your service. You and President Biden did a marvelous job. It's so tragic that so many didn't appreciate it--I think a communication failure of the Administration AND that of mainstream media.
" .... it invariably involves backfilling your own favorite version of what Trump’s up to, which, in turn, has little connection to what he’s actually up to, which, in turn, changes every hour."
Thanks for making that point. Focusing on any one of Trump's failings always falls short of the damage he is about to do. If his mission were to discourage the best and the brightest in America, flout laws and the Constitution, leave the American economy badly damaged, and alienate America's proven friends and allies, he couldn't have done a better job in three months.
I have looked all over for the data for HOW MANY American small businesses (not the Walmarts) import goods from Asia. Watched a great Amanpour interview with (1) a small Vietnamese coffee shop and direct sale (2) small fine clothing business owner and that this has potential of putting them out of business. Just the sheer amount of $ they do not have runway for to get their product off the container ships. They cannot buy Vietnamese beans here and the garment industry is at retirement age.
How many businesses in US require components or all their product from abroad because the price point is critical to survival?
I listen to these auto folks and it makes me never want to buy an American made car. The livelihoods of millions of other Americans they are willing to destroy. Trump could have used a scalpel, but he wanted to feed his savior complex.
Trump and company want to destroy. Remember the tech model that Elon seems to live by, “Move fast and break things”. Recall what Trump told his followers during the campaign, “I will be your revenge”.
Basically Trump and company have goals that are not compatible with having democratic Republic. They want an oligarchy. However, within their elite circles, they disagree regarding which set of oligarchs should be in charge. Musk and fellow Right Wing tech billionaires think it should be them. The wealthy Republican donor class, who probably champion Scott Bessent, believe that they’re the ones who should rule.
Both sets of oligarchs are in agreement that our existing federal government should be bludgeoned and devastated regardless of any negative consequences. Their immediate goal is to be able to claim that they’ve saved enough money to justify Trump’s Big Beautiful tax cuts which will primarily benefit the wealthy. Their second objective is to privatize as much of our government as they can. Again, the goal is to profit the well connected. Think of the opportunities for well connected insiders to make money from outsourcing various government functions.
I'm Joe Biden's biggest fan and yours too Jared but let me respectfully weigh in. When it comes to what Biden/Harris could have done better the answer is move faster with more confidence. Intel should have been given more CHIPS money quicker and inevitable market undersupply during fab build and subsequent oversupply should have been smoothed out with government intervention. The idea of "silicon heartland" was just the medicine the "rust belt" needed. But everyone talks about helping the left behind from lost factory jobs but then fails when they have a chance to do something about it. Just tell Intel to build the fab in Ohio and gov will help if needed to get demand started. Give to South Korea and Taiwan(China) if you must but it is ok to prioritize an American company with American engineers when it comes to investing with American tax payer dollars. There are other examples such as EV batteries in Lorsdtown Ohio and Michigan. Move faster and help with demand if need be. Don't just start a factory when hype is high and then let it be delayed when hype dissipates. At the time it was nice that more money went to red states proving the Joe Biden was indeed a President for all Americans. Yet, now all Americans have lost democracy. In retrospect, the Intel fab and others should have been built in Pennsylvania, a state you had a prayer of winning, unlike Ohio (even Sherrod Brown lost). When it comes to Nippon, long before Nippon made a bid $1 more than Cliffs, the Cliffs and USX deal should have been pushed through in order to create a top 10 American steel company. Concerns from auto companies about a domestic monopoly for auto steel could have been addressed by the government with threats to open up market to foreign competitors if Cliffs/USX tried to charge monopoly prices to US auto makers. Both Joe and Donald were smart enough politicians were smart enough to know that allowing a Japanese company buy United States Steel when the deal was opposed by United Steel Workers union was political poison. Joe waiting until after the election was "kissing you sister". He got no political benefit and inaction opened the field for Trump to demagogue the issue. USX+Cliffs or USX+Nippon, one or the other pick a side and make it happen and defend it. Common thread, move faster, have confidence in the policy, and don't be afraid to gain a political advantage. That is what could have helped Bidenomics be even better than it was. Bidenomics is still the best thing that happened to US economy since FDR.
I am a physical scientist. Free trade is always good, except for critical national security needs. Tariffs are huge entropic losses for the economy, and an entropic loss is never recovered. The mathematical, fact based, economic papers, about the loss of jobs in the Rust Belt, demonstrate 0% to 20% impact of free trade to Rust Belt job losses. Sharod Brown criticizes the companies in the Rust Belt that moved production to the South. Any competent CEO would move production to lower labor cost, non-unionized Southern states, which have better access to ports and shorter transport distances than the Rust Belt. US manufacturing employment grew after NAFTA was signed. US manufacturing was topologically build upon relatively simple products that could be built in "isolated" Rust Belt (small) cities and towns with just rail, or rail and barge support. Today the US manufactures more in real terms than any time in history. But US manufacturing has moved up the food chain. But for the most part it is not big manufacturers, it is smaller, often single owner businesses, who make high value added products using a wide range of inputs. Denver, where I live, is a classic case. We do have some big manufacturing companies, e.g. Lockeed Martin and Ball Aerospace, but most is much smaller. However all rely on a large metro area with high education levels and access to both DIA (3rd busiest airport in the US) and a number of smaller regional airports, two of which have been expanded in recent years to bring in larger cargo planes, as well as being a major freight rail hub, and at the intersection of two interstates (I70, I25). Manufacturing in the US has moved forward with technology and it depends on having what Denver has, a highly educated workforce and good access to the intermediate goods needed to manufacture new higher value goods. The Rust Belt would have collapsed under any rational analysis, with or without China.
Racism and misogyny dominated the Harris/Trump election, polling does ask are you a racist, or simply can never vote for a woman, Trump 45% approval rating is higher than Trump 1, as inflation spikes and the dollar nose dives in value the next Executive Order will be to endorse the Protocols of the Elders of Zion
I absolutely love music, etc., as an antidote to the White House horror show. In 2016, I created an endless playlist of classical music (German Requiem is a favorite). But I have put Ragtime in my playlist since it requires a physical response.
Try Scandinavian Noir on Netflix and Amazon Prime. You can actually sympathize with the characters.
Dear Mr. Bernstein,
You wrote:
"And you can’t really have a recession without higher layoffs (third figure)."
But what if say 2 million undocumented workers either self deport or are deported and the majority of them were working for cash off the books? Are estimates of workers paid off the books folded into any official labor market data?
Thanks in advance and for all you do
Suggestions for an alternative path from your mentions in streaming content, with quality of writing and acting, look to several series produced by the BBC, Canadian Broadcasting, Australian/ NSW, etc.
A multi-talented musical and poetic artist receiving mention across many platforms, genres whom I enjoy interspersed with my favorite classicals, is Jon Batiste...
Thanks for your insights from the non - economist perspective!
Best... /glc
TYPO: Rationale economic policy, should be RATIONAL
Fixed. thnx
Rachmaninoff Piano Concerto No.2 is another wonderful listen!
Please forgive the criticism, it is meant constructively. But IMO, a big part of what you did wrong was in not taking loud and proud credit for the many phenomenal, sweeping, effective things the Biden admin and you as an essential part of it did right. Getting credit for astonishing accomplishments under near impossible circumstances was always an uphill battle with a hostile media (IMO) but it was make or break battle that needed to be fought.
Full Catastrophe Living by John Kabat-Zinn and two Advil once per day.
What about non-labor stats? Here in Australia, the rate of petty-crime like stealing from superrmarkets has gone up, the usage of food banks is way up as low-income families struggle with accomodation affordability vs food on table. Remittances to MX/LatAm, the undocumented workers might not be reflected in official stats but their savinga could be monitored via aggregate FX? There's also food monopolies (cough eggs https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/fowl-play-how-chicken-genetics-barons), if they are passing on price increases compared with say WalMart who can squeeze suppliers it might be a weak signal that recession has started rather than being masked by inventory stockpiling (pull ahead of the tariff tax wedge).