Jared’s Substack

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What Happens If Trump Fires Powell?
It's a ridiculous question, but here we are.
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Jared Bernstein
22
Data_Note: I'm concerned about the CPI
It came in at expectations, but between the tariffs (which I think only get worse in this space), the housing supply shortage, and sticky service…
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Jared Bernstein
18
Trump's Mission to Turn Back Time; Lower Recession Risk
I argue that Trump's atavism says less than you might think about America and its politics, and that slower growth is definitely better than recession…
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Jared Bernstein
26
Weekly Wrap-Up: How Many Own-Goal Kicks/Double Faults Can You Make Before You Lose the Match?
The impact of the administration's damaging economic policies is starting to show.
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Jared Bernstein
18
Tariff Passthrough to Prices: Where Is It?
It's definitely there, but so far less than one might have expected.
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Jared Bernstein
22
When (Budget) Doves Cry
JB in the NYT re r and g (r=interest rate; g=growth rate)
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Jared Bernstein
17
There Are But Two Roads Out Of Tariff Hell
Trump takes neither.
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Jared Bernstein
15
Data_Note: Did you know that real consumer spending this year is up only...[see below]?
An important, if somewhat head-scratchy, data point that may well reflect Trumpian policy and chaos.
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Jared Bernstein
11
Repairing the Damage
We need to start thinking and planning--loudly!--about how we're going to reverse the damage that Trump and Rs are meting out on America.
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Jared Bernstein
42
Data_Note: The U.S. Job Market Just Keeps Plowing Ahead, As Usual...
There are a few soft spots under the hood in the June job market, but the toplines came in better than expected, with solid payroll gains, lower…
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Jared Bernstein
8
Trump's Economic Agenda is Falling Into Place. It Will Not Work.
Yes, that's an empirical, testable claim. If I turn out to be wrong, I will be the first to admit it. But I think I'm right.
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Jared Bernstein
33
Pictures of the Worst Budget Bill of my Lifetime (and I'm old).
It's still not over, which tells you how bad this bill is. Even a few of today's Rs are...for now...balking.
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Jared Bernstein
5
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